4906 Alvin St · Houston, TX 77033

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1951 6,242 sqft lot Est $168k · 41% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity.

Key facts

• 6,242 sq ft lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property built in 1951
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 6,240 sq. ft.; Lot classification: Other

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (two 10 x 10 bedrooms and one primary bedroom 12 x 12), all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,827/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.99%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,625
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4737 Alvin St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+8%)	4mo	$95,000	$78	74
4842 Larkspur St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	2mo	$200,000	$167	70
4813 Larkspur St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+9%)	7mo	$175,000	$143	67
5007 Northridge Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,069 (-5%)	2mo	$163,900	$153	65
8126 Marcy Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+10%)	1mo	$195,000	$157	61
4637 Carmen St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,084 (-4%)	1mo	$135,000	$125	61
5602 Beldart St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,173 (+4%)	3mo	$160,000	$136	59
4918 Carmen St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+12%)	1mo	$213,000	$169	53
4522 Larkspur St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-8%)	7mo	$155,000	$149	51
5306 Kenilwood Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (-8%)	5mo	$80,000	$77	44
5622 Beldart St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,002 (-11%)	2mo	$120,000	$120	43
5639 Westover St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,289 (+15%)	3mo	$230,000	$178	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $31,304
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $102,419
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,558/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $979

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $726	-5% $698	+0% $670	+5% $642	+10% $614
Rent	-10% $525	-5% $597	+0% $670	+5% $742	+10% $814
Rate	-1.0pp $720	-0.5pp $695	base $670	+0.5pp $644	+1.0pp $618

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	6d	1	0.33mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	44d	1	0.38mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	44d	1	0.48mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	0.48mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	13d	1	0.54mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	14d	1	0.56mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.57mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	25d	1	0.57mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	44d	1	0.58mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	44d	1	0.58mi
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	44d	1	0.61mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.69mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	13d	1	0.70mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	12d	1	0.70mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	13d	1	0.70mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	8d	1	0.72mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	15d	1	0.73mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	25d	1	0.74mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	17d	1	0.78mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	0d	2	0.89mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	18d	1	0.91mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	44d	1	0.94mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,253	$3.84	0d	1	1.01mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.03mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	44d	1	1.04mi
5818 Glenhurst Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	1.15mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	1.16mi
5408 Groveton St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,983	$1.35	0d	1	1.17mi
9414 Heno St Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	1.20mi
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	11d	1	1.22mi
5942 Ridgeway Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	44d	1	1.28mi
4942 Bataan Rd Unit 77033 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	44d	1	1.30mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	20d	1	1.32mi
7823 Gladstone St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	44d	1	1.36mi
7826 Gladstone St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	760	$1,250	$1.64	0d	1	1.38mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $99,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 29-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $99,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,558 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,558 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,558
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $6,936
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,665
• After-tax cash flow: $6,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listed $118,000 HARMLS
• 1991-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,558 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.