538 Linda Vista Dr · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$177,700

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1960 6,708 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute 3 bedroom, 1 bath home, with a 1 car dethatched garage. Nestled on a nice loop St. Tile Floors, No carpet. New paint and light fixtures. Brand new mini split system. New Stucco, New windows plus an in-ground pool. Half circular drive and covered porch. Won't last long.

Key facts

• New stucco
• Tile floors
• Light fixtures

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• TILE FLOORS
• NEW PAINT
• LIGHT FIXTURES
• MINI SPLIT SYSTEM
• NEW STUCCO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Site-built home
• Construction: Stucco construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Built-up roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Oven
• Flooring: Tile
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan(s); Has cooling
• Interior features: Window coverings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($621/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,671 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-27,607
• Equity at exit: $26,496

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,221
• Equity at exit: $15,364

Cash invested: $49,756 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$932
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $430/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $177,700

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $102	+0% $52	+5% $1	+10% $-49
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $-10	+0% $52	+5% $114	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $97	base $52	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,425
• Closing costs: $5,331
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1514 Utah Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	1119	$1,450	$1.30	16d	1	0.68mi
1301 Jefferson Ave Unit LAST ONE AVAILABLE!! Alamogordo, NM	2.0	2.0	892	$1,425	$1.60	5d	1	0.95mi
2509 Pecan Dr Unit 11D Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	735	$975	$1.33	23d	1	0.99mi
1301 Fillmore Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	967	$1,095	$1.13	46d	2	1.20mi
1309 Jackson Ave Alamogordo, NM	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,500	$1.02	45d	1	1.25mi
1905 12th St Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	704	$850	$1.21	16d	1	1.26mi
2201 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,000	$2.13	25d	1	1.29mi
2300 Aspen Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,400	$1.02	5d	1	1.37mi
2360 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,600	$1.36	25d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $177,700 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   remarks 274-char remark
3. 2026-06-13
   listed $177,700 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $430 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,422 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$991/yr (+$83/mo · 230.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,954
• − Property taxes: −$430
• − Insurance: −$2,713
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$5,169
• Taxable loss: −$2,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$570
• After-tax cash flow: $1,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $177,700 OCAOR

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $430 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.