507 Page St · Morenci, MI 49256

$114,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1965 0.25 ac lot Est $160k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a quarter-acre lot directly across from the Morenci Area Schools campus. This home features an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for modern living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a full basement offering additional space for storage or future finishing, plus a detached garage. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and room to relax or play. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, windows, roof, kitchen, and bathroom—making this home move-in ready!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Recent updates
• Full basement

Tags

• QUARTER-ACRE LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FULL BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• RECENT UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in MI, #4,401 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Morenci Area Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #283 of 540 in MI (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morenci Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #744 of 1,397 statewide, top 57%, 243 students, 58% FRL); Morenci Middle And High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #334 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 289 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $115k implies a 1042% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.46%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,536
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
524 Maple Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,256 (-7%)	2mo	$77,000	$61	78
202 E Locust Rd	0.29mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,297 (-4%)	2mo	$170,000	$131	73
403 Maple Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	11mo	$204,500	$146	70
221 N Summit St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,467 (+8%)	7mo	$134,000	$91	65
440 Whitney Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,237 (-8%)	2mo	$179,900	$145	64
314 Whitney Ave	0.38mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,427 (+6%)	4mo	$109,000	$76	63
115 W Stephenson St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-1%)	11mo	$160,000	$119	60
426 S East St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,456 (+8%)	0mo	$180,000	$124	59
114 Elm St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,404 (+4%)	11mo	$165,000	$118	55
402 Pearl St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,150 (-15%)	1mo	$100,000	$87	53
324 Owosso	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,437 (+6%)	11mo	$145,000	$101	47
136 Orchard St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,165 (-14%)	3mo	$99,000	$85	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $80,407
• Equity at exit: $103,511

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.92×
• Total profit: $222,668
• Equity at exit: $223,225

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49256

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $669/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $894

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $313	+0% $280	+5% $248	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $182	-5% $231	+0% $280	+5% $330	+10% $379
Rate	-1.0pp $338	-0.5pp $310	base $280	+0.5pp $251	+1.0pp $220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2025-12-29
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a quarter-acre lot directly across from the Morenci Area Schools campus. This home features an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for modern living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a full basement offering additional space for storage or future finishing, plus a detached garage. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and room to relax or play. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, windows, roof, kitchen, and bathroom—making this home move-in ready!

2. 2025-12-29
   status Pending 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a quarter-acre lot directly across from the Morenci Area Schools campus. This home features an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for modern living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a full basement offering additional space for storage or future finishing, plus a detached garage. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and room to relax or play. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, windows, roof, kitchen, and bathroom—making this home move-in ready!

3. 2025-10-27
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a quarter-acre lot directly across from the Morenci Area Schools campus. This home features an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for modern living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a full basement offering additional space for storage or future finishing, plus a detached garage. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and room to relax or play. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, windows, roof, kitchen, and bathroom—making this home move-in ready!

4. 2025-10-27
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a quarter-acre lot directly across from the Morenci Area Schools campus. This home features an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for modern living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a full basement offering additional space for storage or future finishing, plus a detached garage. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and room to relax or play. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, windows, roof, kitchen, and bathroom—making this home move-in ready!

5. 2025-10-09
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a quarter-acre lot directly across from the Morenci Area Schools campus. This home features an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for modern living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a full basement offering additional space for storage or future finishing, plus a detached garage. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and room to relax or play. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, windows, roof, kitchen, and bathroom—making this home move-in ready!

6. 2025-10-09
   status Active 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a quarter-acre lot directly across from the Morenci Area Schools campus. This home features an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for modern living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a full basement offering additional space for storage or future finishing, plus a detached garage. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and room to relax or play. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, windows, roof, kitchen, and bathroom—making this home move-in ready!

7. 2025-09-17
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a quarter-acre lot directly across from the Morenci Area Schools campus. This home features an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for modern living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a full basement offering additional space for storage or future finishing, plus a detached garage. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and room to relax or play. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, windows, roof, kitchen, and bathroom—making this home move-in ready!

8. 2025-09-17
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a quarter-acre lot directly across from the Morenci Area Schools campus. This home features an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for modern living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a full basement offering additional space for storage or future finishing, plus a detached garage. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and room to relax or play. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, windows, roof, kitchen, and bathroom—making this home move-in ready!

9. 2025-08-12
   listed $114,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a quarter-acre lot directly across from the Morenci Area Schools campus. This home features an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for modern living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a full basement offering additional space for storage or future finishing, plus a detached garage. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and room to relax or play. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, windows, roof, kitchen, and bathroom—making this home move-in ready!

10. 2025-08-12
    listed $114,900 Active 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom ranch situated on a quarter-acre lot directly across from the Morenci Area Schools campus. This home features an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for modern living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a full basement offering additional space for storage or future finishing, plus a detached garage. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and room to relax or play. Recent updates include new flooring, drywall, windows, roof, kitchen, and bathroom—making this home move-in ready!

11. 2011-02-28
    soldstatus $10,060 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    HUD home. Sold 'AS IS' by Elec Bid only. For Prop conditions, Forms, Discl & Avail see Website in Agent Remarks * . Insured w Escrow repairs $3,740.00. Bids due by 11:59 PM CSTdaily until sold. BLB Resources makes no warranty as to current or future existence of mold in this property & is not liable for the potentially harmful effects thereof.

12. 2011-02-28
    soldstatus $10,060

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    HUD home. Sold 'AS IS' by Elec Bid only. For Prop conditions, Forms, Discl & Avail see Website in Agent Remarks * . Insured w Escrow repairs $3,740.00. Bids due by 11:59 PM CSTdaily until sold. BLB Resources makes no warranty as to current or future existence of mold in this property & is not liable for the potentially harmful effects thereof.

13. 2011-01-28
    historical
14. 2010-11-04
    listed $10,560 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    HUD home. Sold 'AS IS' by Elec Bid only. For Prop conditions, Forms, Discl & Avail see Website in Agent Remarks * . Insured w Escrow repairs $3,740.00. Bids due by 11:59 PM CSTdaily until sold. BLB Resources makes no warranty as to current or future existence of mold in this property & is not liable for the potentially harmful effects thereof.

15. 2010-11-04
    listed $10,560

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    HUD home. Sold 'AS IS' by Elec Bid only. For Prop conditions, Forms, Discl & Avail see Website in Agent Remarks * . Insured w Escrow repairs $3,740.00. Bids due by 11:59 PM CSTdaily until sold. BLB Resources makes no warranty as to current or future existence of mold in this property & is not liable for the potentially harmful effects thereof.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $669 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,219 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$550/yr (+$46/mo · 82.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$669
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $1,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$376
• After-tax cash flow: $2,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morenci Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624570
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,503
• Composite: 30.09/100
• National rank: #6340
• State rank: #283 of 540 in MI

Livability — Morenci

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morenci, MI
• County: Lenawee · 10,162 people
• Population (ZIP): 3,830
• Household income: $60,982
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.27%
• Current HPI: 304.604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+988.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-27 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-27 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-09 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-09 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-17 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-17 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $114,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $114,900 REALCOMP
• 2011-02-28 Sold (MLS) $10,060 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-02-28 Sold (MLS) $10,060 REALCOMP
• 2011-01-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-11-04 Listed $10,560 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-11-04 Listed $10,560 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $669 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.