31523 Shearwater Dr · Loxley, AL 36527

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2018 7,623 sqft lot $179/sqft · 9% below area Est $335k · 11% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

JUST $299,900 in Stonebridge!! Welcome to this Brick GOLD FORTIFIED home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and an open split floor plan backing up to woods. Step inside to find a spacious living room featuring elegant tray ceilings and a custom floating shelf accent wall. The kitchen is a true standout with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, gas stove, stylish backsplash, oversized pantry, and a refrigerator that conveys with the home. The private primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home and offers tray ceilings, a large walk-in closet, double vanity, soaking tub, and separate shower. Additional upgrades include upgraded light fixtures, blinds throughout, new carp

Key facts

• Gas stove
• Granite countertops
• Oversized pantry

Tags

• BRICK GOLD FORTIFIED HOME
• OPEN SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS STOVE
• OVERSIZED PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool managed by association
• HOA & community: Annual association fee; Association fee covers management, common area insurance, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, reserve funds, common area taxes, and pool; Transfer fees apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached double garage with automatic door; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer with grinder pump; Natural gas connected; Underground utilities; Tankless gas water heater; Riviera Utilities service
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Resale condition
• Construction: Built with brick and concrete board; Fortified-Gold construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof with ridge vent
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch and open porch; Termite contract; Fenced yard; Community pool (association); Community amenities: BBQ area, fitness center, outdoor pool, playground; Has view; Subdivision setting, elevation high

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Gas range; Refrigerator with ice maker; Breakfast area (main level)
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom with walk-in closet (approx. 14 x 13); Two additional bedrooms (each approx. 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with double vanity, soaking tub, separate shower and private water closet
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump cooling (SEER 14); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Split bedroom plan; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.1% in Loxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stonebridge Elementary (509 students, 18% FRL); Spanish Fort Middle School (math 38% / reading 70%, grade B-, #20 of 257 statewide, top 8%, 622 students, 28% FRL); Spanish Fort High School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #25 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,188 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 38% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,200 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,140
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -9.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31525 Plover Ct	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,825 (+9%)	3mo	$256,000	$140	69
31789 Canopy Loop	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,771 (+6%)	1mo	$355,000	$200	68
31544 Plover Ct	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,835 (+10%)	6mo	$315,000	$172	64
31654 Canopy Loop	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,881 (+12%)	3mo	$400,000	$213	58
31257 Palladian Way	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (+6%)	6mo	$314,000	$178	52
31540 Memphis Loop	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,835 (+10%)	4mo	$334,900	$183	48
12652 Wagner Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,925 (+15%)	2mo	$370,440	$192	47
12647 Wagner Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,925 (+15%)	4mo	$369,618	$192	46
12436 Wagner Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,925 (+15%)	2mo	$379,018	$197	41
31075 Bauer Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,925 (+15%)	6mo	$362,985	$189	41
31246 Shambo Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-14%)	8mo	$250,000	$173	40
12343 Wagner Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,925 (+15%)	3mo	$370,498	$192	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-54,707
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-32,321
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36527

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 332
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,052 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,321

Max offer price $262,405

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-42	-5% $-127	+0% $-212	+5% $-297	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-293	+0% $-212	+5% $-131	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-136	base $-212	+0.5pp $-290	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31573 Shearwater Dr Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	23d	1	0.05mi
31448 Memphis Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,400	$1.18	15d	1	0.61mi
32231 Emancipation Cir Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.5	1492	$1,850	$1.24	45d	1	0.67mi
31100 Falling Waters Loop Daphne, AL	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$1,974	$1.70	45d	1	0.69mi
31697 Lyon Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,500	$1.40	23d	1	0.85mi
11801 Balsam Ct Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1783	$2,195	$1.23	23d	1	1.00mi
11730 Madrone Ln Daphne, AL	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,895	$1.18	45d	1	1.07mi
13445 Antler Hill Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1921	$2,100	$1.09	45d	1	1.08mi
13708 Antler Hill Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1948	$2,300	$1.18	45d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
19. 2026-04-09
    price $304,975
20. 2026-04-09
    price $304,975
21. 2026-02-25
    price $309,975
22. 2026-02-25
    price $309,975
23. 2026-01-27
    price $314,975
24. 2026-01-27
    price $314,975
25. 2025-12-02
    price $319,975
26. 2025-12-02
    price $319,975
27. 2025-10-10
    listed $324,975 Active
28. 2021-10-19
    soldstatus $270,000
29. 2021-10-14
    soldstatus $270,000
30. 2021-09-08
    listed $275,000
31. 2018-03-02
    soldstatus $211,900
32. 2017-10-24
    listed $211,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,970
• − Management: −$1,970
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,912
• After-tax cash flow: $-635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Loxley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #11346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loxley, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 21,765
• Household income: $120,189
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.56%
• Current HPI: 234.5113
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+41.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $299,900 BCAR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $304,975 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $304,975 BCAR
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $309,975 GCMLS AL
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $309,975 BCAR
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $314,975 GCMLS AL
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $314,975 BCAR
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $319,975 GCMLS AL
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $319,975 BCAR
• 2025-10-10 Listed $324,975 BCAR
• 2021-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-14 Sold (MLS) $270,000 BCAR
• 2021-09-08 Listed $275,000 BCAR
• 2018-03-02 Sold (MLS) $211,900 BCAR
• 2017-10-24 Listed $211,900 BCAR

Property tax history

+30.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,028 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.