927 Poinsettia Dr · Lancaster, TX 75146

$266,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,766 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1962 0.27 ac lot Est $288k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 3 bedroom with two living areas. The street side has formal living and dining. Backyard side has family room. Extra large lot. The 2 car garage is attached plus a second garage and shed in the backyard.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County: Dallas; Country: United States
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage (about 18' x 18')
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property; One story; Built in 1962
• Construction: Preowned construction (built 1962)
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (about 0.266 acre); Subdivision: Indian Canyon; GPS-friendly directions

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (12 x 12); Total of 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level layout; Wood-burning fireplace; Living area approximately 1766; Separate living and dining areas; Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $266k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#926 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lancaster ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #714 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Main El (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 603 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,160 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,858
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
814 Oakbluff Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,839 (+4%)	4mo	$208,250	$113	82
830 Bordner Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,821 (+3%)	8mo	$350,000	$192	81
933 Waynelee Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,992 (+13%)	3mo	$340,000	$171	70
500 Glenwood Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,718 (-3%)	6mo	$279,700	$163	68
204 Trinity Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,873 (+6%)	4mo	$289,000	$154	67
882 Magnolia Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,676 (-5%)	5mo	$247,000	$147	66
876 Dogwood Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,578 (-11%)	2mo	$264,900	$168	65
1129 Harvest Hill Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,598 (-10%)	1mo	$275,000	$172	58
1106 Rosewood Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-13%)	5mo	$239,900	$156	54
702 Rea Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-13%)	5mo	$175,000	$114	52
208 Mimosa Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,015 (+14%)	5mo	$325,000	$161	45
1313 Oakbluff Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-13%)	4mo	$249,900	$163	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.57% appreciation · 2.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $27,252
• Equity at exit: $128,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $105,474
• Equity at exit: $204,784

Cash invested: $74,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75146

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,282 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,395
• Tax from tax record: −$501 /mo · $6,013/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,540

Max offer price $229,897

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-129	+0% $-204	+5% $-280	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-385	-5% $-294	+0% $-204	+5% $-114	+10% $-24
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-137	base $-204	+0.5pp $-273	+1.0pp $-343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,500
• Closing costs: $7,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
422 Ash Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,995	$1.21	25d	1	0.13mi
830 Bordner Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1821	$2,300	$1.26	13d	1	0.14mi
1215 Jessie Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.5	2279	$2,296	$1.01	13d	1	0.26mi
1218 Jewell Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,071	$1.12	8d	1	0.26mi
610 Canvas Ct Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,276	$1.22	8d	1	0.33mi
610 Canvas Ct Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,210	$1.19	2d	1	0.33mi
900 Diann Cir Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	2247	$2,455	$1.09	2d	1	0.45mi
1125 Greenbriar Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1744	$1,825	$1.05	8d	1	0.48mi
1109 Harvest Hill Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.5	2006	$2,350	$1.17	8d	1	0.51mi
1225 Oakbluff Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,895	$1.42	4d	1	0.55mi
1308 Devine Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,350	$1.50	44d	1	0.57mi
1217 Meadow Creek Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	2088	$1,971	$0.94	13d	1	0.67mi
1217 Meadow Creek Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	2088	$1,905	$0.91	8d	1	0.67mi
1326 Johns Ave Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1236	$2,100	$1.70	44d	1	0.70mi
1450 Waldrop Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,291	$1.18	44d	1	0.82mi
1450 Waldrop Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,105	$1.08	21d	1	0.82mi
1373 Oakbluff Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,850	$1.44	3d	1	0.83mi
509 Arbor Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,875	$1.26	44d	1	0.87mi
721 Lindenwood Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,895	$1.18	16d	1	0.92mi
721 Lindenwood Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,895	$1.18	8d	1	0.92mi
120 E Park Place Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	1.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	25d	1	1.06mi
300 E Main St Lancaster, TX	2.0	1.0	1240	$1,595	$1.29	25d	1	1.11mi
1533 Prescott Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	5d	1	1.11mi
1532 Linda Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,000	$1.45	25d	1	1.15mi
633 Rutgers Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	2065	$1,995	$0.97	5d	1	1.25mi
633 Rutgers Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	2065	$1,995	$0.97	11d	1	1.25mi
1910 Jasmine Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.5	2183	$2,480	$1.14	25d	1	1.25mi
1934 Mosley Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,099	$1.20	25d	1	1.27mi
711 Lentisco Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	2425	$2,249	$0.93	44d	1	1.32mi
1623 Venus Dr E Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.5	2339	$2,345	$1.00	13d	1	1.33mi
2617 Arcady Cir Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	21d	1	1.36mi
2617 Arcady Cir Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	44d	1	1.36mi
1811 Kings Cross Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,200	$1.21	25d	1	1.41mi
1424 Chapman Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,099	$1.15	25d	1	1.42mi
1555 Willowbrook St Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,759	$1.14	22d	1	1.42mi
2654 Hartford Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1657	$2,015	$1.22	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $266,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $266,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   listed $266,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,013 · $501/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,013 · $501/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,900
• − Property taxes: −$6,013
• − Insurance: −$1,330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,190
• − Management: −$2,190
• − Depreciation: −$7,738
• Taxable loss: −$6,983
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,676
• After-tax cash flow: $-777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826670
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,275
• Composite: 21.41/100
• National rank: #8349
• State rank: #714 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #926
• US rank: #16461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 44,142
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,097
• Household income: $68,071
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1462.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% White 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Current HPI: 316.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+114.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $266,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-03-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-02-16 Price Changed $259,000 NTREIS
• 2024-01-30 Price Changed $269,000 NTREIS
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2023-12-19 Listed $279,000 NTREIS
• 2023-09-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2023-08-16 Listed $259,000 NTREIS
• 2017-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-07-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-07-02 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2017-06-24 Listed $124,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,013 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.