553 Monroe Dr · Barlow, KY 42024

$34,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Other · 24 Days on market

Built 1900

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a rehab. We are ready to do it but we thought we would give you a shot first if you want to. This community is ready for this once very elegant home to be restored and put back into commission. Add a bath easily. Enclose the front porch to add a lot of square footage.

Key facts

• Built 1900
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($980 rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#366 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ballard County (rural): math 31% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #61 of 165 in KY (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $235 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $272 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ballard County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,490 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.97%
• DSCR: 4.02
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $32,106
• Equity at exit: $8,536

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.91×
• Total profit: $75,329
• Equity at exit: $9,247

Cash invested: $9,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42024

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$42 /mo · $510/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $297

Max offer price $34,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,500
• Closing costs: $1,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $34,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $34,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $39,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,905
• − Property taxes: −$510
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$941
• − Management: −$941
• − Depreciation: −$989
• Taxable income: $6,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,513
• After-tax cash flow: $4,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballard County
• NCES district ID: 2100210
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $42,202
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6363
• State rank: #61 of 165 in KY

Livability — Barlow

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #17422

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barlow, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,160

Population outlook (Ballard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,166 people
• By 2030: 8,092 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 7,905 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 7,648 · -6.3%
• By 2075: 7,237 · -11.4%
• By 2100: 6,537 · -19.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Ballard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.1% · R 81.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.3pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+59.9 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+37.4 2008: R+27.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Current HPI: 147.6478
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $39,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $41 · -85.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.