21625 Crystal Lake Dr · Mono Vista, CA 95370

$285,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1972 10,516 sqft lot Est $318k · 10% under $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Lower Crystal Falls, this charming 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers 1,266 sq ft of comfortable mountain living. Featuring warm wood ceilings, exposed beams, and a cozy wood burning fireplace, the open living space creates the perfect cabin feel. One mini split is installed upstairs. Enjoy a spacious deck surrounded by trees, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The property also includes a detached garage with ample storage space above. Crystal Falls Ranch amenities include lake, clubhouse, gym, basketball and tennis-pickleball courts, stables, garden, and more. Conveniently located near Pinecrest Lake, Dodge Ridge Ski Resort, and Yosemite National Park, making it a great full ti

Key facts

• Wood ceilings
• Spacious deck
• Exposed beams

Tags

• WOOD CEILINGS
• EXPOSED BEAMS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS DECK
• DETACHED GARAGE
• CRYSTAL FALLS AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Crystal Falls Homeowners Association; Quarterly HOA fee; Community clubhouse, fitness center, and tennis courts; HOA fee covers reserves, management fee, and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Detached covered garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1972
• Construction: Wood construction; Shingle roof; Built in 1972
• Exterior features: Deck; Rear porch; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Tile counters; Dishwasher; Electric range / cooktop
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on street level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Wood-burning fireplace; Main entry; Loft; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $276k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.0% in Mono Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#793 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Soulsbyville Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #272 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,766
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21786 Crystal Lake Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,269 (+0%)	10mo	$419,000	$330	78
21313 American River Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+2%)	7mo	$322,500	$249	68
21517 Crystal Falls Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,366 (+8%)	9mo	$314,000	$230	65
21407 Crystal Falls Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (-10%)	0mo	$320,000	$281	60
16925 American River Dr. West	0.27mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,388 (+10%)	3mo	$369,900	$266	60
16537 Creekside Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,328 (+5%)	11mo	$325,000	$245	56
16986 Oaktree Ln	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,296 (+2%)	12mo	$325,000	$251	53
16581 S Creekside Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+2%)	6mo	$305,000	$235	52
21881 Phoenix Lake Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+11%)	2mo	$360,000	$257	49
21931 Glenwood Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (+12%)	1mo	$351,000	$248	48
21338 Crystal Fls	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (+11%)	8mo	$220,000	$156	48
21566 Hunts Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (+12%)	10mo	$427,000	$302	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-16,310
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $24,102
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,757/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,283

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21593 Crystal Falls Dr Sonora, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,950	$2.36	23d	1	0.18mi
19011 Middle Camp Rd Twain Harte, CA	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,295	$1.45	13d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $285,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $285,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-05-19
    status Active
20. 2026-04-28
    status Pending
21. 2026-04-06
    listed $285,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,166 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 23.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,757
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,763
• − Management: −$2,763
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $1,046
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$251
• After-tax cash flow: $5,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Soulsbyville Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637320
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,518
• Composite: 30.5/100
• National rank: #6217
• State rank: #272 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mono Vista

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #22675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mono Vista, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-28 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-06 Listed $285,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,757 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.