45 Magness Creek Dr · Cabot, AR 72023

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,803 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2000 0.33 ac lot Est $263k · at est. $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a one-story home with a layout that actually makes sense? You’ve found it! Don’t let the square footage fool you—this home offers an incredibly functional floor plan with spacious rooms throughout. The large kitchen has plenty of room for more than one chef, while the adjoining dining area can easily accommodate a farmhouse-style table for gatherings and everyday meals alike. The living room is generously sized with vaulted and tray ceilings, giving the space an open, airy feel with plenty of room for all the furniture, even the oversized sectional! If you’re tired of tiny secondary bedrooms, this home is a must-see. The guest rooms are oversized, with en

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options include VA, FHA, conventional loans, or cash
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $120; Community amenities include tennis courts, playground, and picnic area; Mandatory community fee

Exterior

• Parking: Garage for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas; Electric service via cooperative; All utilities underground; Insulated doors and windows
• Home design: Brick and frame combination exterior
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Fully fenced yard with wood fence; Guttering; Paved road access; Sloped and level areas; inside city limits; near river/lake area; upslope; Subdivision location

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Surface range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Pantry; Refrigerator stays; Ice maker connection
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom about 16.5 x 12.5; Second bedroom about 12 x 12.5; Third bedroom about 12.5 x 12.5
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric cooling; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Washer connection and electric dryer connection; Gas water heater; Floored attic; Walk-in closets; Built-in shelving; Ceiling fans; Formica kitchen counters; Sheetrock walls and ceilings with tray and vaulted ceiling details; Wood-burning fireplace with gas logs
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer and dryer connections

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-797/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in Cabot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AR, #2,695 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $173k; list at $265k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,783 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,238
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Emma Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,836 (+2%)	2mo	$260,000	$142	80
12 Boxwood Cv	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,983 (+10%)	4mo	$298,900	$151	77
12 Elk Horn Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-6%)	3mo	$239,900	$141	74
16 Lakeland Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,015 (+12%)	3mo	$310,000	$154	60
65 Magness Creek Dr Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,021 (+12%)	9mo	$295,000	$146	59
17 Elizabeth Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,693 (-6%)	3mo	$280,000	$165	57
26 Lakeland Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,021 (+12%)	3mo	$307,000	$152	56
37 Lakeland Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,063 (+14%)	7mo	$301,000	$146	52
12 Sagebrush Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (-7%)	5mo	$245,000	$146	51
24 Pecan Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-11%)	6mo	$213,200	$133	45
20 Pecan Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,659 (-8%)	10mo	$247,750	$149	43
16 Pecan Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	2,006 (+11%)	9mo	$269,900	$135	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-46,876
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-45,035
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72023

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,616/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,082

Max offer price $253,261

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Emily Cv Cabot, AR	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,100	$1.03	14d	1	0.37mi
13 Lauren Cv Cabot, AR	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,100	$1.24	14d	1	0.69mi
44 Kirkland Dr Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	2077	$1,900	$0.91	14d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $265,000 New Listing
17. 2025-03-29
    historical $1,675
18. 2025-03-14
    listed $1,675
19. 2024-03-14
    historical $1,500
20. 2024-02-07
    historical
21. 2023-12-21
    price $1,500
22. 2023-12-01
    price $1,550
23. 2023-11-18
    historical
24. 2023-11-17
    listed $250,000 New Listing
25. 2023-11-10
    price $1,600
26. 2023-10-14
    listed $1,700
27. 2023-08-17
    listed $250,000 New Listing
28. 2023-07-21
    historical
29. 2023-05-27
    historical Take Backups
30. 2023-04-20
    listed $250,000 New Listing
31. 2019-09-13
    soldstatus $172,900
32. 2019-09-09
    soldstatus $172,900 Sold
33. 2019-08-09
    historical Take Backups
34. 2019-07-28
    price $172,900
35. 2019-07-16
    listed $174,900 New Listing
36. 2008-04-02
    soldstatus $158,000
37. 2000-12-05
    soldstatus $134,061

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,616 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,616
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,314
• After-tax cash flow: $517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Cabot

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2695

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cabot, AR
• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 37,452
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 37,452
• Household income: $76,931
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.12%
• Current HPI: 182.3489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.19%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+97.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $265,000 CARMLS
• 2025-03-29 Rental Removed $1,675 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-14 Listed for Rent $1,675 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-14 Rental Removed $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-02-07 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-12-21 Price Changed $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2023-12-01 Price Changed $1,550 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-18 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Listed $250,000 CARMLS
• 2023-11-10 Price Changed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-14 Listed for Rent $1,700 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-17 Listed $250,000 CARMLS
• 2023-07-21 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-05-27 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2023-04-20 Listed $250,000 CARMLS
• 2019-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $172,900 Public Records
• 2019-09-09 Sold (MLS) $172,900 CARMLS
• 2019-08-09 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2019-07-28 Price Changed $172,900 CARMLS
• 2019-07-16 Listed $174,900 CARMLS
• 2008-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $134,061 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,616 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.