12721 W Greenway Rd #159 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$48,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 110 Days on market

Built 1985 Average condition $31/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem features a versatile den that's perfect for a home office, hobby room, or creative studio. Comfort comes easy with a newer AC unit installed in 2022 (and still under warranty), plus a water heater that's only about five years old. Vinyl flooring adds a modern touch to key living spaces, giving the home a clean, stylish look that's built to last. Every corner reflects thoughtful upkeep, blending practicality with charm. Step outside and you'll find a beautifully landscaped yard designed for both relaxation and fun. Raised vegetable and herb gardens, fruit trees, and plenty of open space for your own ideas.

Key facts

• Newer ac unit
• Vinyl flooring
• Water heater

Tags

• NEWER AC UNIT
• WATER HEATER
• VINYL FLOORING
• LANDSCAPED YARD
• RAISED VEGETABLE GARDENS
• FRUIT TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.4% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,680 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 111.11%
• DSCR: 5.94
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,373
• List price: $48,000
• Delta: -54.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12721 W Greenway Rd #159	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (0%)	0mo	$44,000	$29	100
12721 W Greenway Rd #39	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (0%)	1mo	$102,000	$66	99
12721 W Greenway Rd #224	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+1%)	13mo	$107,000	$69	88
12721 W Greenway Rd #25	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,542 (+0%)	1mo	$73,500	$48	88
12721 W Greenway Rd #11	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	9mo	$138,600	$83	76
12721 W Greenway Rd #116	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-8%)	15mo	$100,000	$70	75
12721 W Greenway Rd #108	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	14mo	$59,000	$44	67
15632 N Greasewood St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-12%)	21mo	$315,000	$233	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $65,815
• Equity at exit: $7,157

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.23×
• Total profit: $137,446
• Equity at exit: $4,150

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$60 /mo · $720/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $1,244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $420

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,278	-5% $1,261	+0% $1,244	+5% $1,228	+10% $1,211
Rent	-10% $1,087	-5% $1,166	+0% $1,244	+5% $1,323	+10% $1,402
Rate	-1.0pp $1,269	-0.5pp $1,257	base $1,244	+0.5pp $1,232	+1.0pp $1,219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	24d	4	0.15mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	5d	1	0.31mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	44d	1	0.32mi
12532 W Saint Moritz Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	6d	1	0.36mi
13029 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$1,860	$0.95	2d	1	0.44mi
14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$2,010	$1.31	44d	1	0.48mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,759	$1.16	24d	1	0.49mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,709	$1.12	15d	1	0.49mi
13007 W Mandalay Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2178	$2,095	$0.96	25d	1	0.51mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	24d	1	0.52mi
12537 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	25d	1	0.57mi
13217 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	2d	1	0.59mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	25d	2	0.63mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	17d	1	0.63mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	1795	$1,300	$0.72	4d	1	0.65mi
14944 N 133rd Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,171	$1.43	22d	1	0.66mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,900	$1.31	5d	1	0.68mi
12830 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2179	$2,145	$0.98	2d	1	0.69mi
13002 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,795	$1.18	11d	1	0.70mi
13186 W Gelding Cir Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1691	$1,899	$1.12	3d	1	0.72mi
13314 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1252	$2,355	$1.88	44d	1	0.73mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	2d	17	0.78mi
12204 W Ocotillo Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$1,949	$0.92	24d	1	0.80mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	2d	1	0.84mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	19d	1	0.84mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	25d	1	0.84mi
13402 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1987	$2,595	$1.31	25d	1	0.85mi
13402 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1987	$4,000	$2.01	44d	1	0.85mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	25d	1	0.86mi
14973 N 135th Dr Unit 1546409P Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1797	$3,122	$1.74	13d	1	0.88mi
13148 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,970	$1.44	4d	1	0.90mi
13440 W Gelding Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2102	$2,235	$1.06	6d	1	0.94mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	2d	3	0.94mi
13391 W Crocus Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2102	$2,195	$1.04	6d	1	0.96mi
13342 W Canyon Creek Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,750	$1.23	25d	1	1.01mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	44d	1	1.01mi
12731 W Sharon Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	17d	1	1.02mi
13939 N 132nd Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1297	$3,500	$2.70	44d	1	1.03mi
15204 N El Frio Ct El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,019	$1.02	3d	1	1.04mi
13949 N 133rd Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,995	$1.31	44d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 643-char remark

   Show marketing remark (643 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem features a versatile den that's perfect for a home office, hobby room, or creative studio. Comfort comes easy with a newer AC unit installed in 2022 (and still under warranty), plus a water heater that's only about five years old. Vinyl flooring adds a modern touch to key living spaces, giving the home a clean, stylish look that's built to last. Every corner reflects thoughtful upkeep, blending practicality with charm. Step outside and you'll find a beautifully landscaped yard designed for both relaxation and fun. Raised vegetable and herb gardens, fruit trees, and plenty of open space for your own ideas.

2. 2026-05-13
   price $48,000 643-char remark

   Show marketing remark (643 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem features a versatile den that's perfect for a home office, hobby room, or creative studio. Comfort comes easy with a newer AC unit installed in 2022 (and still under warranty), plus a water heater that's only about five years old. Vinyl flooring adds a modern touch to key living spaces, giving the home a clean, stylish look that's built to last. Every corner reflects thoughtful upkeep, blending practicality with charm. Step outside and you'll find a beautifully landscaped yard designed for both relaxation and fun. Raised vegetable and herb gardens, fruit trees, and plenty of open space for your own ideas.

3. 2026-04-29
   price $49,000 643-char remark

   Show marketing remark (643 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem features a versatile den that's perfect for a home office, hobby room, or creative studio. Comfort comes easy with a newer AC unit installed in 2022 (and still under warranty), plus a water heater that's only about five years old. Vinyl flooring adds a modern touch to key living spaces, giving the home a clean, stylish look that's built to last. Every corner reflects thoughtful upkeep, blending practicality with charm. Step outside and you'll find a beautifully landscaped yard designed for both relaxation and fun. Raised vegetable and herb gardens, fruit trees, and plenty of open space for your own ideas.

4. 2026-01-28
   listed $50,000 Active 643-char remark

   Show marketing remark (643 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem features a versatile den that's perfect for a home office, hobby room, or creative studio. Comfort comes easy with a newer AC unit installed in 2022 (and still under warranty), plus a water heater that's only about five years old. Vinyl flooring adds a modern touch to key living spaces, giving the home a clean, stylish look that's built to last. Every corner reflects thoughtful upkeep, blending practicality with charm. Step outside and you'll find a beautifully landscaped yard designed for both relaxation and fun. Raised vegetable and herb gardens, fruit trees, and plenty of open space for your own ideas.

5. 2026-01-13
   historical
6. 2025-09-22
   price $60,000
7. 2025-06-19
   price $70,000
8. 2025-05-31
   price $79,000
9. 2025-05-22
   price $85,000
10. 2025-05-08
    listed $88,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$720
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $15,066
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,616
• After-tax cash flow: $11,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home has average condition with some cosmetic updates needed. It's move-in ready with a good layout and potential for value increases through minor improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Black cabinets show some wear
• Minor Bathroom walls — Blue walls show some discoloration
• Minor Landscaping — Some bushes appear dry

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen faucet — A new faucet can enhance the kitchen's functionality and appearance
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Black cabinets show some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom walls · Blue walls show some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Some bushes appear dry	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen faucet — A new faucet can enhance the kitchen's functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-45.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $48,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $49,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $70,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $79,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $88,000 ARMLS