15472 Woody Haven Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,556 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,499 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Love where you live in Granger Pines in Conroe, TX! The Wildflower floor plan is a charming 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, flex space, and a 2.5-car garage. This home has it all, including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout! The gourmet kitchen is open to both the dining and family rooms and features 42" cabinetry, silestone countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring silestone countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don’t miss your opportunity to call Granger Pines home, schedule a visit today!

Key facts

• Flex space
• Gourmet kitchen
• 42 cabinetry

Tags

• FLEX SPACE
• PRIVACY BLINDS
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 CABINETRY
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: AssociaPrincipal Management Group; Annual association fee of $650 covering common areas and recreation facilities; Community has curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Oversized garage with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction by Legend Homes; Faces south; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation; Subdivision lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors; Solid surface counters; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $239,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $257,870.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-347/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $228,755 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,870
• List price: $239,990
• Delta: -6.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15427 Woody Haven Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-3%)	1mo	$249,990	$165	90
15623 Tranquil Pines St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,697 (+9%)	1mo	$254,990	$150	78
15557 Granger Green Way	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+12%)	1mo	$266,990	$153	68
14158 Granger Pointe Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+0%)	2mo	$254,040	$163	65
14166 Granger Pointe Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+0%)	2mo	$260,040	$167	64
16787 Country Roots Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+12%)	1mo	$274,990	$157	61
16771 Country Roots Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+12%)	0mo	$279,990	$160	61
14150 Granger Pointe	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	0mo	$213,790	$148	59
14170 Granger Pointe Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-8%)	0mo	$227,940	$160	57
14162 Granger Pointe Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-8%)	1mo	$214,590	$150	57
14312 Grey Pointe Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	2mo	$236,940	$165	54
14171 Granger Pointe Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-10%)	0mo	$239,540	$170	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-42,867
• Equity at exit: $38,449

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-36,565
• Equity at exit: $22,296

Cash invested: $72,204 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,352
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,868/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,324

Max offer price $253,686

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $60	+0% $-29	+5% $-118	+10% $-207
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-119	+0% $-29	+5% $61	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $37	base $-29	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,467
• Closing costs: $7,736
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	0d	13	0.82mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,990 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,990 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,990 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,990 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,990 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,990 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,990 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,990 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,990 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,990 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,990 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,990 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,990 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,990 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    listed $239,990 Active 657-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,445
• − Property taxes: −$3,868
• − Insurance: −$1,289
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,196
• − Management: −$2,196
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,502
• Taxable loss: −$4,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Granger Pines, TX is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It's move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The home's curb appeal and location make it an attractive investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Inspect and clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for rental properties.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Inspect and clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for rental properties. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $239,990 HARMLS