25600 Horseshoe Ln · Tehachapi, CA 93561

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1963 1.76 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own usable land in the Tehachapi area with key improvements already in place. This 1.76-acre parcel offers a desirable rural setting with convenient access, making it ideal for buyers looking to build, invest, or create a custom homesite. The property is equipped with valuable utilities including city water, septic system, and electricity saving significant time and expense compared to raw land. The lot is generally usable and well-suited for future development or placement of a new manufactured or site-built home. The existing mobile home is in poor condition and holds no contributory value; the property is being marketed primarily for its land and utility features. Wh

Key facts

• Custom homesite
• Electricity
• City water

Tags

• USABLE LAND
• RURAL SETTING
• CITY WATER
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• ELECTRICITY
• CUSTOM HOMESITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type listed as Manufactured Home / Manuf/Mobl Pers Prop; Directions: From downtown Tehachapi, take the 58 freeway east for about 7 miles. Exit onto Sand Canyon Rd. Drive 7 miles to Horseshoe Lane. Left on Horseshoe Lane, dirt driveway is on the right.; Cross street: Sand Canyon Road

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Propane
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One level
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Composition roof; Approximately 1.76 acres; Zoned E2.5

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (type listed as Other); Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Wood burning stove; Electric oven, Electric range, Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 3.4% in Tehachapi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,093 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Tehachapi Unified (town): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #285 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 654 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $95k implies a 1088% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.27%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $44,028
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $99,612
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93561

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $622/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $1,026

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,079	-5% $1,053	+0% $1,026	+5% $999	+10% $972
Rent	-10% $864	-5% $945	+0% $1,026	+5% $1,106	+10% $1,187
Rate	-1.0pp $1,074	-0.5pp $1,050	base $1,026	+0.5pp $1,001	+1.0pp $976

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $95,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $722 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$100/yr (+$8/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥88°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$622
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $11,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,743
• After-tax cash flow: $9,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tehachapi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638880
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,230
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #6497
• State rank: #285 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tehachapi

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1093
• US rank: #25419

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 31,175
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,175
• Household income: $87,357
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 568.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.70%
• Current HPI: 371.6546
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1087.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $95,000 TAAR
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $99,900 GEMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $119,900 GEMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $124,900 GEMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $129,900 GEMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $129,900 CRMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $199,900 GEMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $209,900 GEMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $219,900 GEMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $160,000 GEMLS
• 1998-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $622 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.