909 Grinnell St · Key West, FL 33040

$1,899,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,790 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 331 Days on market

Built 1976 3,002 sqft lot Est $1947k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 7 units. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to acquire SEVEN units in the X-Flood Zone in Old Town Key West. That's correct, seven market rate units! That's less than $272K per unit! Renovations in progress. Recent changes to IRS tax code (such as accelerated depreciation) can benefit RE Investors - ask your tax expert. Prime location, just 1/2 block from cemetery and 1/2 block off Truman Ave. Currently configured as 6 units (but City recognizes 7). Presently being used as: one 2-bedroom unit, three 1-bedroom units and 2 studio units. All with separate exterior entrances. Convenient location is close to many Old Town hot spots including world famous Duval St. . Perfect for employee housing or income producing multi-

Key facts

• Seven units
• X-flood zone
• 3,002 sq ft lot

Tags

• SEVEN UNITS
• X-FLOOD ZONE
• SEPARATE EXTERIOR ENTRANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Seven total units
• HOA & community: No association fees; No HOA fee inclusions; No first right of refusal

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer hook-up available; Buyer to verify other utilities
• Home design: Two-story building; Above flood level; Historic High Density Residential zoning; Located in Old Town (north of Truman), Key West; property faces median side of the block
• Construction: Built in 1976; CBS construction
• Exterior features: No waterfront; No dockage; Pets allowed; Rentals allowed with a minimum of 30 days; Located in a 0.07-acre lot (less than 1/4 acre); Located in Flood Zone: 0.2% annual chance

Interior

• Kitchen: Some appliances included
• Bathrooms: Six full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window/Wall unit
• Interior features: Window/Wall unit cooling and heating; Some kitchen appliances included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7 × 7-bed/6.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.90M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($112k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $1.90M).
• Recommended offer: $1.67M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 0.8% in Key West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#65 in FL, #1,123 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $27,118/mo this rent would consume 376% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 2502% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $57k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $532k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 331 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $1.90M implies a 2501% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,671,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 331 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.27%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,947,420
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
602 Southard St	0.44mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,671 (-4%)	11mo	$1,425,000	$534	58
1320 Johnson St	0.63mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,436 (-13%)	15mo	$1,700,000	$698	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $330,272
• Equity at exit: $283,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $1,232,429
• Equity at exit: $164,191

Cash invested: $531,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33040

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 40.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $27,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,959
• Tax from tax record: −$1,247 /mo · $14,965/yr
• Insurance: −$791
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,695
• Net cashflow: $9,360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,270

Max offer price $1,899,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,435	-5% $9,897	+0% $9,360	+5% $8,822	+10% $8,285
Rent	-10% $7,218	-5% $8,289	+0% $9,360	+5% $10,431	+10% $11,502
Rate	-1.0pp $10,316	-0.5pp $9,843	base $9,360	+0.5pp $8,868	+1.0pp $8,367

7-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 7× units	7	6	$27,118
Total (7 units)			$27,118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $474,750
• Closing costs: $56,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $1,899,000 Active 331 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,899,000 Active 330 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,899,000 Active 329 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,899,000 Active 328 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,899,000 Active 327 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,899,000 Active 325 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,899,000 Active 324 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,899,000 Active 322 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,899,000 Active 321 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,899,000 Active 320 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,899,000 Active 319 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,899,000 Active 316 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,899,000 Active 315 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,899,000 Active 314 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,899,000 Active 313 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,899,000 Active 312 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,899,000 Active 311 DOM
18. 2025-07-23
    listed $1,899,000 Active
19. 2023-08-01
    historical
20. 2023-05-07
    status Active
21. 2023-04-22
    historical Contingent (Show)
22. 2023-03-20
    price $1,675,000
23. 2023-01-30
    listed $1,995,000 Active
24. 1985-09-01
    soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $14,965 · $1,247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,762 · $1,313/mo
• Expected delta: +$797/yr (+$66/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $325,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$106,374
• − Property taxes: −$14,965
• − Insurance: −$10,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$26,033
• − Management: −$26,033
• − Depreciation: −$55,244
• Taxable income: $86,475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20,754
• After-tax cash flow: $91,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Key West

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #1123

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Key West, FL
• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• City population: 35,429
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,429
• Household income: $86,586
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2502.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Black 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 14%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -814.48%
• Current HPI: 168.5706
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.52%
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2501.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-23 Listed $1,899,000 FLKMLS
• 2023-08-01 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2023-05-07 Relisted — FLKMLS
• 2023-04-22 Contingent — FLKMLS
• 2023-03-20 Price Changed $1,675,000 FLKMLS
• 2023-01-30 Listed $1,995,000 FLKMLS
• 1985-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,965 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.