516 N Nelson St · Pampa, TX 79065

$72,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1940 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home full of character and opportunity! This cute property offers a spacious layout, a large yard with plenty of room for gardening, entertaining, pets, or future improvements, and a detached one-car garage/shop perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop space. The home has great bones and just needs a little updating to truly make it your own. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, investor, or someone looking for an affordable property with potential, this home is worth a look. Don't miss the chance to add your personal touch and create something special! Note: Toilet being replaced.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Spacious layout
• Detached garage

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Has heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($783 rent vs $72k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in TX, #3,885 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Pampa ISD (town): math 38% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #482 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7 units permitted in Gray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gray County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.19%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-780
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $13,287
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79065

• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $783 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $473/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $566

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $192	+0% $171	+5% $151	+10% $130
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $140	+0% $171	+5% $202	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $208	-0.5pp $190	base $171	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Hampton Ln Pampa, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,048	$1.05	44d	1	0.44mi
1601 W Somerville St Unit 1201 Pampa, TX	3.0	2.0	1053	$865	$0.82	44d	1	0.54mi
1601 W Somerville St Unit 1001 Pampa, TX	2.0	2.0	935	$780	$0.83	44d	1	0.54mi
1601 W Somerville St Unit 601 Pampa, TX	1.0	1.0	812	$750	$0.92	44d	1	0.54mi
1601 W Somerville St Unit 501 Pampa, TX	1.0	1.0	623	$675	$1.08	44d	1	0.54mi
1601 W Somerville St Unit 103 Pampa, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$700	$1.00	44d	1	0.54mi
120 S Russell St Unit 211 Pampa, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$550	$0.92	44d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $72,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $72,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 620-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   listed $72,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $473 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$844/yr (+$70/mo · 178.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$473
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$751
• − Management: −$751
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$223
• After-tax cash flow: $1,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pampa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834170
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,741
• Composite: 31.43/100
• National rank: #5986
• State rank: #482 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pampa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #3885

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pampa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,569

Population outlook (Gray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,965 people
• By 2030: 26,105 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 28,752 · +15.2%
• By 2050: 31,859 · +27.6%
• By 2075: 39,812 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 43,284 · +73.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Gray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.2% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -71.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+77.2 2016: R+78.8 2012: R+75.2 2008: R+71.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.67%
• Current HPI: 128.8525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $72,000 PBOR

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $473 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.