21100 State St #3 · San Jacinto, CA 92583

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 261 Days on market

Built 1974 $95/sqft · 36% below area Est $126k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 Bed, 1 Bath Home in the 55+ Community of Country Lakes Nestled in the serene country lakes community, this spacious two-bedroom, 1- bath home offers comfort and convenience. Enjoy your morning on the large patio while taking in beautiful mountain views. A peaceful retreat with a welcoming neighborhood feel-perfect for your next chapter. Buyer must get Park residency approval, prior to purchase. Call park office to start that process.

Key facts

• Large patio
• Mountain views
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• LARGE PATIO
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• WELCOMING NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Jacinto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#467 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• San Jacinto Unified (suburban): math 13% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #421 of 517 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.84%
• DSCR: 3.31
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,750
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -36.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21100 State St #107	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	15mo	$61,340	$78	72
21100 State St #4	0.14mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	23mo	$50,000	$60	71
1365 Sierra Dr	0.73mi	1/1.0 (-1)	824 (-2%)	12mo	$112,000	$136	44
842 Elm Dr	0.75mi	2/1.0	800 (-5%)	19mo	$125,000	$156	38
814 Grove Ave	0.70mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (-5%)	19mo	$145,000	$181	35
1423 Sierra Dr	0.66mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-11%)	22mo	$129,900	$173	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $47,886
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $118,020
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92583

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,922 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $966

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1397 Bushy Tail Trl San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	937	$1,795	$1.92	44d	1	0.54mi
1344 Sierra Seneca Dr San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	5d	1	0.60mi
1318 Bushy Tail Trl San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,750	$1.68	24d	1	0.62mi
1453 Prospect Dr #82 San Jacinto, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	44d	1	0.63mi
1382 Western Dr San Jacinto, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,650	$2.36	44d	1	0.73mi
1311 Heritage Ranch Rd San Jacinto, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,750	$1.94	44d	1	0.78mi
918 Acorn Dr San Jacinto, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,600	$2.67	44d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 247 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 243 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $79,900 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Charming 2 Bed, 1 Bath Home in the 55+ Community of Country Lakes Nestled in the serene country lakes community, this spacious two-bedroom, 1- bath home offers comfort and convenience. Enjoy your morning on the large patio while taking in beautiful mountain views. A peaceful retreat with a welcoming neighborhood feel-perfect for your next chapter. Buyer must get Park residency approval, prior to purchase. Call park office to start that process.

16. 2025-10-28
    price $89,900 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Charming 2 Bed, 1 Bath Home in the 55+ Community of Country Lakes Nestled in the serene country lakes community, this spacious two-bedroom, 1- bath home offers comfort and convenience. Enjoy your morning on the large patio while taking in beautiful mountain views. A peaceful retreat with a welcoming neighborhood feel-perfect for your next chapter. Buyer must get Park residency approval, prior to purchase. Call park office to start that process.

17. 2025-09-30
    listed $94,900 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Charming 2 Bed, 1 Bath Home in the 55+ Community of Country Lakes Nestled in the serene country lakes community, this spacious two-bedroom, 1- bath home offers comfort and convenience. Enjoy your morning on the large patio while taking in beautiful mountain views. A peaceful retreat with a welcoming neighborhood feel-perfect for your next chapter. Buyer must get Park residency approval, prior to purchase. Call park office to start that process.

18. 2006-02-19
    historical
19. 2005-11-19
    listed $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,845
• − Management: −$1,845
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $10,979
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,635
• After-tax cash flow: $8,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Jacinto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634440
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 20.94/100
• National rank: #8478
• State rank: #421 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jacinto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #15889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 33,778
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,778
• Household income: $68,351
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 26% Two or more races 23% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 40% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.15%
• Current HPI: 407.8584
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+255.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $79,900 CRMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $89,900 CRMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $94,900 CRMLS
• 2006-02-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2005-11-19 Listed $22,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $115 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.