12378 Black Oak Dr · Cobb, CA 95461

$205,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 262 Days on market

Built 1994 6,098 sqft lot $215/sqft · 21% below area Est $261k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your perfect mountain hideaway! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, character, and affordability. Surrounded by tall pines on a private lot, it features soaring high ceilings, a cozy propane fireplace, and an inviting open floor plan that maximizes space and natural light. The kitchen and dining area flow seamlessly into the living room, making it perfect for relaxing evenings or casual entertaining. Step outside to the large covered deck — the ultimate spot for morning coffee, reading a good book, or barbecuing with friends while enjoying tranquil wooded views. Practical features include a covered carport with storage underneath, bamboo and vinyl flooring, double-pane windows, and a low-maintenance lot. The home’s location is a bonus — within walking distance to local dining, a grocery store, and community amenities like a pool, summer resorts, and the nearby Adams Springs Golf Course. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or an affordable investment, this home delivers the best of mountain living. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a cozy retreat in the heart of Loch Lomond!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered carport
• Large covered deck

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE UNDERNEATH
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE COVERED DECK
• PEACEFUL MOUNTAIN LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.3% in Cobb — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#589 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,006
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -21.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12236 Western Pne	0.12mi	2/2.0	950 (-0%)	2mo	$279,000	$294	88
10720 Sycamore Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,076 (+13%)	22mo	$329,900	$307	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,530
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $13,621
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95461

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,155 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,794/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,764

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $425	-5% $367	+0% $309	+5% $251	+10% $193
Rent	-10% $139	-5% $224	+0% $309	+5% $394	+10% $479
Rate	-1.0pp $412	-0.5pp $361	base $309	+0.5pp $256	+1.0pp $202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $205,000 Active 262 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $205,000 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $205,000 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active Under Contract 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active Under Contract 246 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    status $215,000 Active Under Contract 245 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 245 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 244 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 243 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 242 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    price $215,000 1213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1213 chars)

    Discover your perfect mountain hideaway! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, character, and affordability. Surrounded by tall pines on a private lot, it features soaring high ceilings, a cozy propane fireplace, and an inviting open floor plan that maximizes space and natural light. The kitchen and dining area flow seamlessly into the living room, making it perfect for relaxing evenings or casual entertaining. Step outside to the large covered deck — the ultimate spot for morning coffee, reading a good book, or barbecuing with friends while enjoying tranquil wooded views. Practical features include a covered carport with storage underneath, bamboo and vinyl flooring, double-pane windows, and a low-maintenance lot. The home’s location is a bonus — within walking distance to local dining, a grocery store, and community amenities like a pool, summer resorts, and the nearby Adams Springs Golf Course. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or an affordable investment, this home delivers the best of mountain living. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a cozy retreat in the heart of Loch Lomond!

19. 2026-01-09
    price $230,000 1213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1213 chars)

    Discover your perfect mountain hideaway! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, character, and affordability. Surrounded by tall pines on a private lot, it features soaring high ceilings, a cozy propane fireplace, and an inviting open floor plan that maximizes space and natural light. The kitchen and dining area flow seamlessly into the living room, making it perfect for relaxing evenings or casual entertaining. Step outside to the large covered deck — the ultimate spot for morning coffee, reading a good book, or barbecuing with friends while enjoying tranquil wooded views. Practical features include a covered carport with storage underneath, bamboo and vinyl flooring, double-pane windows, and a low-maintenance lot. The home’s location is a bonus — within walking distance to local dining, a grocery store, and community amenities like a pool, summer resorts, and the nearby Adams Springs Golf Course. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or an affordable investment, this home delivers the best of mountain living. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a cozy retreat in the heart of Loch Lomond!

20. 2025-09-30
    listed $240,000 Active 1213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1213 chars)

    Discover your perfect mountain hideaway! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, character, and affordability. Surrounded by tall pines on a private lot, it features soaring high ceilings, a cozy propane fireplace, and an inviting open floor plan that maximizes space and natural light. The kitchen and dining area flow seamlessly into the living room, making it perfect for relaxing evenings or casual entertaining. Step outside to the large covered deck — the ultimate spot for morning coffee, reading a good book, or barbecuing with friends while enjoying tranquil wooded views. Practical features include a covered carport with storage underneath, bamboo and vinyl flooring, double-pane windows, and a low-maintenance lot. The home’s location is a bonus — within walking distance to local dining, a grocery store, and community amenities like a pool, summer resorts, and the nearby Adams Springs Golf Course. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or an affordable investment, this home delivers the best of mountain living. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a cozy retreat in the heart of Loch Lomond!

21. 2024-10-29
    historical
22. 2024-08-07
    price $264,000
23. 2024-06-22
    listed $269,000 Active
24. 2004-03-18
    soldstatus $170,000
25. 2002-03-15
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,794 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,794 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥97°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,794
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $453
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$109
• After-tax cash flow: $3,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelseyville Unified
• NCES district ID: 0619320
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,210
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #12920
• State rank: #1150 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Cobb

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #19147

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,265
• Population (ZIP): 3,720

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.72%
• Current HPI: 161.0914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+211.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $215,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $230,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $240,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $264,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-22 Listed $269,000 CRMLS
• 2004-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,794 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.