394 Shiloh Creek Dr · Calera, AL 35040

$261,795

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,391 sqft · SingleFamily · 167 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $188/sqft · 6% below area Est $278k · 6% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Toby C is a beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1391 square foot home with a front entry single car garage. The entry way opens up into a foyer that leads on one side to the two guest bedrooms with a shared full bathroom, and on the other side into the open concept kitchen, living, and dining areas. The kitchen features a large island with plenty of cabinet space. Just off of the kitchen is the laundry room, which leads into the front entry garage. The kitchen flows into the living area that features floor to ceiling windows and access to the backyard. The primary suite sits at the back of the home and features a private en-suite with a large walk in closet and private tub/shower with a single vanity.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $262k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-484 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calera Intermediate School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 766 students, 68% FRL); Calera Middle (math 9% / reading 45%, grade F, #147 of 257 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 61% FRL); Calera High (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 1,066 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 26% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 472 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,924 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.92%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,932
• List price: $261,795
• Delta: -5.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
350 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+0%)	6mo	$264,000	$189	95
00373 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,391 (0%)	6mo	$260,000	$187	87
140 Ridgecrest Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-3%)	2mo	$224,000	$166	80
201 Bonnieville Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-3%)	5mo	$233,000	$173	80
145 Cattail Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+8%)	4mo	$219,900	$147	70
354 Shiloh Creek Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+10%)	4mo	$306,987	$200	69
117 Ridgecrest Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-10%)	3mo	$159,600	$127	67
119 Creek Run Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-14%)	1mo	$186,000	$156	66
229 Saratoga Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,279 (-8%)	5mo	$199,900	$156	65
211 Saratoga Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-10%)	1mo	$213,000	$170	64
124 Cattail Ln	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,225 (-12%)	1mo	$180,350	$147	58
144 Enclave Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-12%)	3mo	$197,000	$161	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-72,041
• Equity at exit: $39,034

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-97,426
• Equity at exit: $22,635

Cash invested: $73,303 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.9 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $271,806 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 202 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,373
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,927/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,322

Max offer price $191,773

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-303	-5% $-393	+0% $-484	+5% $-574	+10% $-665
Rent	-10% $-619	-5% $-551	+0% $-484	+5% $-416	+10% $-349
Rate	-1.0pp $-352	-0.5pp $-417	base $-484	+0.5pp $-552	+1.0pp $-621

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,449
• Closing costs: $7,854
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,650	$0.89	0d	1	0.00mi
240 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,645	$0.89	0d	1	0.03mi
223 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,635	$0.88	0d	1	0.03mi
188 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,595	$0.86	98d	1	0.04mi
248 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,595	$0.86	119d	1	0.04mi
252 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,695	$0.91	77d	1	0.05mi
172 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,600	$0.86	62d	1	0.06mi
255 Creek Run Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,625	$0.87	0d	1	0.06mi
116 Brookside Way Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1801	$1,695	$0.94	139d	1	0.23mi
181 Winners Cir Calera, AL	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,295	$1.06	0d	1	0.38mi
177 Winners Cir Calera, AL	2.0	2.0	1224	$1,395	$1.14	0d	1	0.38mi
148 Enclave Ave Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1340	$4,150	$3.10	97d	1	0.75mi
100 Enclave Ave Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,585	$1.27	115d	1	0.86mi
34 Dunwar Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,731	$0.98	93d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $261,795 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $261,795 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $261,795 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $261,795 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $261,795 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $261,795 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $261,795 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $261,795 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $261,795 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $261,795 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $261,795 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $261,795 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $261,795 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $261,795 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $261,795 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $261,795 Active 147 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $261,795 Active 146 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $261,796 Active 303 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $261,796 Active 302 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $261,796 Active 301 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $261,796 Active 300 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $261,796 Active 299 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $261,796 Active 297 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $261,796 Active 296 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $261,796 Active 295 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $261,796 Active 294 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $261,796 Active 293 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $261,796 Active 292 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $261,796 Active 291 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $261,796 Active 290 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $261,796 Active 289 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $261,796 Active 288 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $261,796 Active 287 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $261,796 Active 286 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $261,796 Active 285 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $261,796 Active 284 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $261,796 Active 283 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $261,796 Active 282 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $261,796 Active 281 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $261,796 Active 280 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $261,796 Active 279 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $261,796 Active 278 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $261,796 Active 277 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $261,796 Active 276 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $261,796 Active 275 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $261,796 Active 272 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $261,796 Active 271 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $261,796 Active 270 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $261,796 Active 269 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $261,796 Active 265 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,665
• − Property taxes: −$3,927
• − Insurance: −$1,309
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,616
• Taxable loss: −$10,587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,955–$20,865 screening

This Toby C model home is in good condition with a good curb appeal and fresh paint. Minor updates to exterior trim and gutters would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim and siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace gutters — Prevents water damage and improves aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Calera Intermediate School F AL #311/627 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Calera Middle F AL #147/257 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Calera High F AL #169/305 Nat'l #14,491/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 237,024 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

---

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $261,796 Zillow
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $261,671 Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-29 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $261,539 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $261,379 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $261,539 Zillow
• 2025-09-30 Listed $261,379 Zillow