584 Watson Rd · Erlanger, KY 41018

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1939 4.00 ac lot $112/sqft · 41% below area Est $254k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully Updated-Charm & Character Galore! Nice Wood Floors-Formal Dining or 4th Bdrm-Wonderful Large Level Yard-New 1/2 Bath on 2nd Flr-New Bath in Fam Rm-Walkout LL-Oversized Garage! Convenient Location!

Key facts

• 4 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1939

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family house; One and one-half levels; Built in 1939
• Construction: Brick construction; Block and poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Balcony; Has view; Lot approximately 0.75 acre (237 x 100)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (13 x 9); Bedroom 2 (13 x 12); Bedroom 3 (12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; Stone, inoperable wood-burning fireplace; Balcony; Vinyl window frames
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup in basement / lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.8% in Erlanger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#126 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Erlanger-Elsmere Independent (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #128 of 165 in KY (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lindeman Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #301 of 676 statewide, top 48%, 286 students, 60% FRL); Tichenor Middle School (math 19% / reading 38%, grade F, #161 of 217 statewide, top 75%, 539 students, 54% FRL); Lloyd High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 697 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $117k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,051
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -40.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4112 Lloyd Ave	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,315 (-2%)	2mo	$270,000	$205	70
419 Locust St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,313 (-2%)	5mo	$225,000	$171	65
328 Sunset Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,362 (+2%)	0mo	$147,000	$108	61
3917 Rankin Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (-7%)	6mo	$237,000	$191	61
4219 Lafayette Ct	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,323 (-1%)	10mo	$248,000	$187	52
404 Mcalpin Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-12%)	3mo	$242,500	$206	52
305 Forest Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,395 (+4%)	8mo	$245,000	$176	52
509 Edgar Ct	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,196 (-10%)	0mo	$266,000	$222	51
417 James Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (-12%)	7mo	$235,000	$201	49
307 Center St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (+5%)	9mo	$275,000	$195	46
41 Linwood Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,188 (-11%)	6mo	$272,000	$229	39
208 Clay St	0.72mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,176 (-12%)	8mo	$220,000	$187	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,094
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $15,052
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41018

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,523 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,929/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3904 Lori Dr Erlanger, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	722	$1,335	$1.85	1d	12	0.17mi
580 Erlanger Rd Unit 580-5 Erlanger, KY	2.0	1.5	883	$1,475	$1.67	43d	1	0.48mi
3235 N Talbot Ave Unit 3235-2 Erlanger, KY	3.0	1.5	1032	$1,675	$1.62	16d	1	0.50mi
3234 N Talbot Ave Unit 3234-5 Erlanger, KY	2.0	1.5	883	$1,475	$1.67	14d	1	0.54mi
3231 N Talbot Ave Unit 3231-5 Erlanger, KY	2.0	1.5	883	$1,475	$1.67	23d	1	0.55mi
3223 N Talbot Ave Unit 3223-7 Erlanger, KY	2.0	1.5	883	$1,475	$1.67	21d	1	0.63mi
3219 N Talbot Ave Unit 3219-4 Erlanger, KY	2.0	1.5	883	$1,475	$1.67	43d	1	0.67mi
159 Green River Dr Erlanger, KY	2.0	2.0	1278	$1,595	$1.25	1d	1	0.74mi
682 Mimosa Ct Erlanger, KY	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,136	$1.33	7d	1	0.84mi
4787 Houston Rd Florence, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,908	$1.86	1d	25	0.88mi
121 Carlisle St Elsmere, KY	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,000	$1.21	14d	1	0.89mi
7222 Isaac Ln Florence, KY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,795	$1.28	16d	1	0.99mi
6805 Sebree Dr Florence, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	901	$1,404	$1.56	1d	14	1.31mi
868 Virginiabradford Ct Elsmere, KY	3.0	2.5	974	$3,500	$3.59	1d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-30
   listed $150,000 Active 109-char remark
2. 2004-09-01
   soldstatus $116,900
3. 2004-08-27
   soldstatus $116,900 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Beautifully Updated-Charm & Character Galore! Nice Wood Floors-Formal Dining or 4th Bdrm-Wonderful Large Level Yard-New 1/2 Bath on 2nd Flr-New Bath in Fam Rm-Walkout LL-Oversized Garage! Convenient Location!

4. 2004-02-02
   listed $119,900 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Beautifully Updated-Charm & Character Galore! Nice Wood Floors-Formal Dining or 4th Bdrm-Wonderful Large Level Yard-New 1/2 Bath on 2nd Flr-New Bath in Fam Rm-Walkout LL-Oversized Garage! Convenient Location!

5. 2002-11-08
   soldstatus $123,900

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   Beautifully updated-charm & character galore! Nice wood floors-Formal dining could be 4th bdrm-Wonderful large level yard-New 1/2 bath on 2nd flr-New bath in fam rm-Walkout LL-Oversized garage! Convenient Location!

6. 2002-07-28
   listed $123,900

   Show marketing remark (218 chars)

   Beautifully updated-charm & character galore! Nice wood floors-Formal dining could be 4th bdrm-Wonderful large level yard-New 1/2 bath on 2nd flr-New bath in fam rm-Walkout LL-Oversized garage! Convenient Location!

7. 2000-09-18
   soldstatus $96,000
8. 2000-09-13
   soldstatus $96,000
9. 2000-07-08
   listed $95,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,929 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,929 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,929
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,462
• − Management: −$1,462
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$93
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22
• After-tax cash flow: $2,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erlanger-Elsmere Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101740
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,377
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7975
• State rank: #128 of 165 in KY

Livability — Erlanger

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #5933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erlanger, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 28,940
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,940
• Household income: $68,605
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 678.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.57%
• Current HPI: 215.9599
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.22%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+56.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $150,000 NKMLS
• 2004-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $116,900 Public Records
• 2004-08-27 Sold (MLS) $116,900 NKMLS
• 2004-02-02 Listed $119,900 NKMLS
• 2002-11-08 Sold (MLS) $123,900 NKMLS
• 2002-07-28 Listed $123,900 NKMLS
• 2000-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-13 Sold (MLS) $96,000 NKMLS
• 2000-07-08 Listed $95,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,929 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.