130 Holly Dr · Conashaugh Lakes, PA 18337

$34,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition 4,792 sqft lot Est $40k · 13% under $233/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LAKEVIEW PROPERTY WITH TWO BEDROOMS. WATCH THE LAKE FROM YOUR CAMPFIRE OR FUTURE TENT PLATFORM WITH A SCREEN ROOM. WALK TO THE CLUBHOUSE, LAKE AND POOLS. GREAT LOCATION. START YOUR CAMPING JOURNEY HERE.

Key facts

• Screen room
• Clubhouse
• Lakeview property

Tags

• LAKEVIEW PROPERTY
• SCREEN ROOM
• CLUBHOUSE
• LAKE
• POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Commercial
• HOA & community: Homeowners association in place; Annual association fee of $2,800 (about $233.33/month)

Exterior

• Home design: Residential property listed as Vacation RV/Trailer
• Construction: 400 square feet of above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Located on a private lake; Situated in the Lake Adventure subdivision

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; 1 full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $739 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.0% vs local median 5.3% in Conashaugh Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#786 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,853 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.95%
• DSCR: 5.40
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $40,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
154 Village Dr W	0.10mi	2/1.0	400 (0%)	10mo	$40,000	$100	87
114 Glenwood Landing Lndg	0.18mi	2/1.0	407 (+2%)	3mo	$36,457	$90	86
120 Forest Glen Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	400 (0%)	0mo	$40,000	$100	83
120 Crescent Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0	392 (-2%)	8mo	$37,000	$94	81
102 Lake Dr N #1772	0.31mi	2/1.0	385 (-4%)	8mo	$91,500	$238	73
140 Blue Aspen Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	350 (-12%)	9mo	$24,000	$69	67
131 Bobcat Dr	0.56mi	1/1.0 (-1)	399 (-0%)	4mo	$84,000	$211	65
126 Deer Run	0.61mi	2/1.0	400 (0%)	10mo	$109,000	$273	64
104 Glenwood Lndg	0.22mi	1/1.0 (-1)	340 (-15%)	0mo	$11,000	$32	60
216 Village Dr W	0.33mi	2/1.0	345 (-14%)	6mo	$62,000	$180	56
121 Birchy Brook Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0	340 (-15%)	3mo	$36,000	$106	49
109 Bobcat Dr	0.48mi	1/1.0 (-1)	450 (+12%)	11mo	$38,500	$86	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $41,643
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.00×
• Total profit: $97,746
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18337

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $524/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$233
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $684

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $233 · $2,796/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $34,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $34,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $34,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,900 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    listed $34,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$524
• − Insurance: −$972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − HOA: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $9,071
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,177
• After-tax cash flow: $6,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

A mobile home with average interior and exterior condition, requiring minor repairs and maintenance to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor mobile home structure — mobile home appears slightly tilted
• Minor landscaping — some overgrown areas

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint mobile home exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
mobile home structure · mobile home appears slightly tilted	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · some overgrown areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint mobile home exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conashaugh Lakes

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #7924

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pike County · 15,799 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,799
• Household income: $93,149
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 275.0

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.81%
• Current HPI: 194.0604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $34,900 PWMLS