8325 25th St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$208,530

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The 1,200 square-foot Briley floor plan is a smart, functional layout with open living and storage where it counts. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen and living areaGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

Key facts

• Briley floor plan
• Open-concept kitchen
• Open living

Tags

• BRILEY FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN LIVING
• COVERED ENTRY
• VINYL EXTERIOR
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1200; Address: 8325 25th St, Lubbock TX 79407; Status: Active; List price: $208,530; Last modified: 2026-05-22

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space (total)
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Spec home, Plan: Briley

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-851/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Willow Bend El (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 730 students, 74% FRL); Terra Vista Middle (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 891 students, 66% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 613 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $173,441 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-43,364
• Equity at exit: $31,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-63,114
• Equity at exit: $18,030

Cash invested: $58,388 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 613
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,734 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,094
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$261 /mo · $3,128/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,824

Max offer price $198,268

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $1	+0% $-71	+5% $-143	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-139	+0% $-71	+5% $-2	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-18	base $-71	+0.5pp $-125	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,132
• Closing costs: $6,256
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	22d	1	0.20mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	15d	1	0.20mi
8607 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,749	$1.30	45d	1	0.22mi
2511 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,099	$1.45	22d	1	0.62mi
2509 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	22d	1	0.62mi
2055 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,649	$1.14	15d	1	0.64mi
2154 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	22d	1	0.67mi
2168 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.69mi
2028 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	0.71mi
2125 Kirksey Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	0.72mi
2162 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.72mi
2147 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	22d	1	0.74mi
2131 Kokomo Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	22d	1	0.75mi
2140 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,999	$1.38	45d	1	0.75mi
2143 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	45d	1	0.76mi
2152 Langford Ave Unit Labs Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,660	$1.14	22d	1	0.77mi
2139 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,899	$1.31	22d	1	0.78mi
2130 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	22d	1	0.78mi
2137 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	22d	1	0.79mi
2148 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.79mi
2123 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	22d	1	0.81mi
2138 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.82mi
2132 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	15d	1	0.83mi
2128 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	15d	1	0.84mi
2122 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	15d	1	0.85mi
2101 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	45d	1	0.86mi
1919 Langford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,399	$0.93	45d	1	0.88mi
1919 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,350	$0.90	45d	1	0.88mi
1918 Langford Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,399	$0.93	15d	1	0.91mi
1903 Langford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	45d	1	0.92mi
1903 Langford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	15d	1	0.92mi
1903 Langford Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	45d	1	0.93mi
7541 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,500	$1.16	22d	1	1.05mi
7535 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,395	$1.25	45d	1	1.05mi
8704 10th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$1,450	$1.02	45d	1	1.23mi
7420 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	1.42mi
7413 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,475	$1.18	22d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $208,530 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $208,530 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $208,530 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $208,530 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $208,530 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $208,530 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $208,530 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $208,530 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $208,530 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $208,530 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $208,530 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $208,530 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $208,530 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $208,530 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $208,530 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $208,530 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,681
• − Property taxes: −$3,128
• − Insurance: −$1,043
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,665
• − Management: −$1,665
• − Depreciation: −$6,066
• Taxable loss: −$4,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,064
• After-tax cash flow: $213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 17 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a smart, functional layout. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior updates to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the space
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the space ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B