25774 John Wayne Rd · Patton Village, TX 77372

$241,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · Land · 19 Days on market

Built 2025 6,250 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Family-owned and operated with a focus on people—not Wall Street—this home is built for those who value true life improvement and lasting quality. If you’re ready to experience a higher standard of homeownership, this is one you don’t want to miss. Designed with enhanced structural integrity, built-in hurricane safety features, and industry-leading energy efficiency, this home delivers peace of mind and long-term savings. Don’t be distracted by the short-term or bargain pricing—quality matters, and you’ll feel the difference the moment you walk in. Loaded with designer finishes, situated on an oversized corner homesite, fully fenced for added privac

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Tags

• ENHANCED STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY
• OVERSIZED CORNER HOMESITE
• FULLY FENCED FOR ADDED PRIVACY

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($795/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.2% in Patton Village — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Timber Lakes El (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 860 students, 63% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 548 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $192,091 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-35,101
• Equity at exit: $36,081

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-25,568
• Equity at exit: $20,923

Cash invested: $67,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 548
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,921 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $677/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $241,990

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $135	+0% $66	+5% $-2	+10% $-71
Rent	-10% $-86	-5% $-10	+0% $66	+5% $142	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $128	base $66	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,498
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	3.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	6d	1	0.11mi
25625 Chestnut Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,675	$1.07	26d	1	0.54mi
25982 Stillbrook Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,225	$1.12	1d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $241,990
3. 2026-03-18
   listed $244,990 Active
4. 2025-12-31
   historical
5. 2025-10-24
   listed $241,990 Active
6. 2025-10-24
   historical
7. 2025-07-14
   listed $241,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $677 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,428 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,751/yr (+$313/mo · 553.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,555
• − Property taxes: −$677
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$3,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$821
• After-tax cash flow: $1,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $241,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $241,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $241,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+67.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $677 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.