811 Carson Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,685 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2000 0.28 ac lot $163/sqft · at area comps Est $289k · at est. $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3 bed/2 bath single family home in a quiet neighborhood with wildlife and great amentities including a swimming pool, tennis court, playground & more! From the curb there is a sense of calm and certainly pride of ownership. As you enter the formal foyer the high ceilings and wide hall way is warm & welcoming, pulling you into the semi-open concept living space. The split floor plan features two secondary bedrooms flanked to the left of the front door split by a full bath. The living room is light & bright, joining the large dining space & kitchen all anchored by the cozy corner gas fireplace. Large primary bedroom features an en-suite bath wi

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Woodland Oaks POA; Annual association fee of $384; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property facing east; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2000
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (3 total bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; Separate shower; Gas and wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-294/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tom R Ellisor El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 492 students, 40% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,451 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,719
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -4.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33515 Forest West St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,521 (-10%)	1mo	$235,000	$155	73
7127 Hayden Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,869 (+11%)	4mo	$315,000	$169	66
7119 Durango Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,906 (+13%)	6mo	$299,000	$157	64
7022 Dillon Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (+11%)	4mo	$300,000	$161	58
6626 Grant Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,570 (-7%)	5mo	$255,000	$162	53
7023 Casita Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,485 (-12%)	8mo	$270,000	$182	52
723 Hinsdale	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,841 (+9%)	3mo	$299,000	$162	50
33127 Cottonwood Bnd	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,834 (+9%)	1mo	$225,000	$123	49
6846 Durango Creek Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,910 (+13%)	3mo	$285,000	$149	46
6835 Durango Creek Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-11%)	8mo	$254,900	$171	43
6622 Dillon Dr	0.70mi	3/3.0	1,896 (+12%)	0mo	$318,000	$168	42
6626 Dillon Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-12%)	9mo	$255,000	$171	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $141,903
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $407,674
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$351 /mo · $4,214/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,456

Max offer price $270,666

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $53	+0% $-25	+5% $-102	+10% $-180
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-120	+0% $-25	+5% $71	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $45	base $-25	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7210 Alava Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2031	$2,235	$1.10	44d	1	0.39mi
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	2d	22	0.59mi
33124 Magnolia Cir Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,875	$1.67	44d	1	0.76mi
39300 Cimarron Way Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,353	$1.15	12d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $275,000 Active 1012-char remark
16. 2026-05-04
    historical $275,000 1012-char remark
17. 2000-01-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,214 · $351/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$818/yr (+$68/mo · 19.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,214
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,328
• − Management: −$2,328
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,185
• After-tax cash flow: $891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $275,000 HARMLS
• 2000-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,214 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.