18563 Meadow Run Dr Dr · Vance, AL 35490

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2019 Est $258k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Allatoona Floor Plan offers charming exterior features and a functional layout suitable for every lifestyle. This one-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths offers an open concept design with a large living and dining area, perfect for entertaining. The private owner’s suite provides a retreat for relaxation complete with a beautiful bathroom, large garden tub and walk-in closet. The Allatoona’s interior is further enhanced with thousands of dollars’ worth of upgrades including energy-efficient kitchen appliances, granite countertops, custom cabinetry and more.

Key facts

• Only 5 years old
• Open concept home
• Granite

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT HOME
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE
• ONLY 5 YEARS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-190/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.6% in Vance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vance Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #367 of 627 statewide, top 60%, 499 students, 69% FRL); Brookwood Middle School (math 8% / reading 36%, grade F, #182 of 257 statewide, top 71%, 796 students, 65% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,691 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10758 Bent Brook Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (-2%)	0mo	$260,000	$164	84
18562 Jessicah Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+10%)	4mo	$277,000	$156	73
18548 Caffee Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (-7%)	1mo	$262,900	$176	68
18566 Caffee Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (-7%)	1mo	$262,400	$175	68
18553 Caffee Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (-7%)	3mo	$254,900	$170	66
18542 Caffee Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+10%)	1mo	$281,087	$158	63
18717 Caffee Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (-7%)	3mo	$249,900	$167	62
18547 Caffee Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+10%)	1mo	$283,400	$160	62
18692 Caffee Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+10%)	2mo	$272,900	$154	59
18570 Blocton Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+10%)	2mo	$272,400	$154	58
18710 Caffee Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+10%)	4mo	$274,900	$155	58
18571 Blocton Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+10%)	5mo	$267,400	$151	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $126,864
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $374,160
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $788/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,767

Max offer price $232,199

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18542 Caffee Dr Vance, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,750	$0.99	21d	1	0.28mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2024-09-03
   soldstatus $235,000
2. 2024-07-26
   status Pending
3. 2024-07-23
   listed $235,000 Active
4. 2020-06-22
   soldstatus $215,900 589-char remark

   Show marketing remark (589 chars)

   The Allatoona Floor Plan offers charming exterior features and a functional layout suitable for every lifestyle. This one-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths offers an open concept design with a large living and dining area, perfect for entertaining. The private owner’s suite provides a retreat for relaxation complete with a beautiful bathroom, large garden tub and walk-in closet. The Allatoona’s interior is further enhanced with thousands of dollars’ worth of upgrades including energy-efficient kitchen appliances, granite countertops, custom cabinetry and more.

5. 2019-09-07
   listed $215,900 589-char remark

   Show marketing remark (589 chars)

   The Allatoona Floor Plan offers charming exterior features and a functional layout suitable for every lifestyle. This one-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths offers an open concept design with a large living and dining area, perfect for entertaining. The private owner’s suite provides a retreat for relaxation complete with a beautiful bathroom, large garden tub and walk-in closet. The Allatoona’s interior is further enhanced with thousands of dollars’ worth of upgrades including energy-efficient kitchen appliances, granite countertops, custom cabinetry and more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $964 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$176/yr (+$15/mo · 22.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$788
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,045
• After-tax cash flow: $855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+8.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-26 Pending — WAMLS
• 2024-07-23 Listed $235,000 WAMLS
• 2020-06-22 Sold (MLS) $215,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-09-07 Listed $215,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+18.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $788 · -48.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.