409 S 1st St · Marshall, MN 56258

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,120 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Built 1959 8,712 sqft lot $94/sqft · 19% below area Est $248k · 19% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 409 1st Street S! This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The main living areas are open and spacious. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances that were new in 2019. The main level flooring in the kitchen, dining, living room and hallway was installed in 2022. The main floor bedrooms have the original wood flooring. The solid wood doors for the bedrooms and bath were replaced in 2023. Also in 2023, the basement ceiling was replaced with sheetrock and new recessed lighting. 2024 the shingles on the house were replaced along with a new cement driveway and the garage floor. Electric water heater was new in 2018, Furnace in 2020, Central Air in 2021. New sump pump in 2025.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#47 in MN, #1,265 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, commute F.
• Marshall Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #163 of 301 in MN (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lyon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,011 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,250
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -19.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-45,819
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-57,114
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56258

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,082/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,757

Max offer price $162,584

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-05-01
   status Active 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Welcome to 409 1st Street S! This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The main living areas are open and spacious. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances that were new in 2019. The main level flooring in the kitchen, dining, living room and hallway was installed in 2022. The main floor bedrooms have the original wood flooring. The solid wood doors for the bedrooms and bath were replaced in 2023. Also in 2023, the basement ceiling was replaced with sheetrock and new recessed lighting. 2024 the shingles on the house were replaced along with a new cement driveway and the garage floor. Electric water heater was new in 2018, Furnace in 2020, Central Air in 2021. New sump pump in 2025.

6. 2026-04-29
   historical 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Welcome to 409 1st Street S! This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The main living areas are open and spacious. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances that were new in 2019. The main level flooring in the kitchen, dining, living room and hallway was installed in 2022. The main floor bedrooms have the original wood flooring. The solid wood doors for the bedrooms and bath were replaced in 2023. Also in 2023, the basement ceiling was replaced with sheetrock and new recessed lighting. 2024 the shingles on the house were replaced along with a new cement driveway and the garage floor. Electric water heater was new in 2018, Furnace in 2020, Central Air in 2021. New sump pump in 2025.

7. 2026-04-10
   status Active 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Welcome to 409 1st Street S! This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The main living areas are open and spacious. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances that were new in 2019. The main level flooring in the kitchen, dining, living room and hallway was installed in 2022. The main floor bedrooms have the original wood flooring. The solid wood doors for the bedrooms and bath were replaced in 2023. Also in 2023, the basement ceiling was replaced with sheetrock and new recessed lighting. 2024 the shingles on the house were replaced along with a new cement driveway and the garage floor. Electric water heater was new in 2018, Furnace in 2020, Central Air in 2021. New sump pump in 2025.

8. 2026-03-30
   historical Contingent - Inspection 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Welcome to 409 1st Street S! This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The main living areas are open and spacious. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances that were new in 2019. The main level flooring in the kitchen, dining, living room and hallway was installed in 2022. The main floor bedrooms have the original wood flooring. The solid wood doors for the bedrooms and bath were replaced in 2023. Also in 2023, the basement ceiling was replaced with sheetrock and new recessed lighting. 2024 the shingles on the house were replaced along with a new cement driveway and the garage floor. Electric water heater was new in 2018, Furnace in 2020, Central Air in 2021. New sump pump in 2025.

9. 2026-03-02
   price $199,900 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Welcome to 409 1st Street S! This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The main living areas are open and spacious. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances that were new in 2019. The main level flooring in the kitchen, dining, living room and hallway was installed in 2022. The main floor bedrooms have the original wood flooring. The solid wood doors for the bedrooms and bath were replaced in 2023. Also in 2023, the basement ceiling was replaced with sheetrock and new recessed lighting. 2024 the shingles on the house were replaced along with a new cement driveway and the garage floor. Electric water heater was new in 2018, Furnace in 2020, Central Air in 2021. New sump pump in 2025.

10. 2026-02-16
    listed $225,000 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Welcome to 409 1st Street S! This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The main living areas are open and spacious. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances that were new in 2019. The main level flooring in the kitchen, dining, living room and hallway was installed in 2022. The main floor bedrooms have the original wood flooring. The solid wood doors for the bedrooms and bath were replaced in 2023. Also in 2023, the basement ceiling was replaced with sheetrock and new recessed lighting. 2024 the shingles on the house were replaced along with a new cement driveway and the garage floor. Electric water heater was new in 2018, Furnace in 2020, Central Air in 2021. New sump pump in 2025.

11. 2026-01-29
    historical $225,000 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Welcome to 409 1st Street S! This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The main living areas are open and spacious. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances that were new in 2019. The main level flooring in the kitchen, dining, living room and hallway was installed in 2022. The main floor bedrooms have the original wood flooring. The solid wood doors for the bedrooms and bath were replaced in 2023. Also in 2023, the basement ceiling was replaced with sheetrock and new recessed lighting. 2024 the shingles on the house were replaced along with a new cement driveway and the garage floor. Electric water heater was new in 2018, Furnace in 2020, Central Air in 2021. New sump pump in 2025.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,082 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,082 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,082
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,431
• − Management: −$1,431
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$6,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,458
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2718940
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,798
• Composite: 40.09/100
• National rank: #3807
• State rank: #163 of 301 in MN

Livability — Marshall

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #1265

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marshall, MN
• County: Lyon County · 15,888 people
• City population: 15,888
• Metro: Marshall, MN
• Population (ZIP): 15,888
• Household income: $72,731
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 483.0

Population outlook (Lyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,369 people
• By 2030: 24,890 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 23,599 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 22,383 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 20,076 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 18,901 · -25.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% English 6% Lithuanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 33.1% · R 64.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -1.6pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+9.2 2008: R+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.90%
• Current HPI: 177.471
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marshall, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listed $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Coming Soon $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,082 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.