Willow Plan · Barrett, TX 77532

$277,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,412 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The stylish Willow home offers a fresh take on modern living with its thoughtfully designed two-story layout. With its 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, this floor plan is ideal for growing families, first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a spacious and cozy new space. With its inviting design and open concept living areas, the Willow plan blends comfort and functionality in a way that feels effortlessly livable. Walking into the home through the front porch, you're instantly greeted by the foyer that leads straight into the large family room and front-facing two-car garage. If you and your family need a larger space for extra storage or another vehicle, there is an option to add a half-car garage.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Foyer
• Front porch

Tags

• TWO STORY LAYOUT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREAS
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• FRONT PORCH
• FOYER
• OPEN TO BELOW LIVING ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $277,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,110 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,990
• List price: $277,990
• Delta: -1.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12931 Carla Scanlan Ln	0.03mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (-3%)	1mo	$284,990	$122	84
1519 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (-3%)	1mo	$282,990	$121	81
1543 Chimney Springs Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,157 (-11%)	0mo	$284,991	$132	70
1530 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,198 (-9%)	7mo	$298,280	$136	66
1519 Brenda Jean Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,198 (-9%)	10mo	$279,220	$127	63
1339 Sea Oats Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,157 (-11%)	2mo	$316,990	$147	62
1322 Bonnerjee Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,157 (-11%)	5mo	$318,990	$148	55
1222 Garrett Sudhendrio Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,157 (-11%)	6mo	$314,990	$146	53
1219 Bonnerjee Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,157 (-11%)	4mo	$316,990	$147	52
1239 Bonnerjee Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,157 (-11%)	8mo	$316,990	$147	50
1210 Garrett Sudhendrio Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,157 (-11%)	10mo	$316,990	$147	50
1331 Garrett Sudhendrio Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,157 (-11%)	11mo	$314,990	$146	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,750
• Equity at exit: $42,046

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-75,256
• Equity at exit: $24,381

Cash invested: $78,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.4 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $270,990 ($130/sqft)
• Median days on market: 43 d
• This list price: 57% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1446
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,230/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,551

Max offer price $262,577

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $-37	+0% $-134	+5% $-232	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-228	+0% $-134	+5% $-40	+10% $54
Rate	-1.0pp $8	-0.5pp $-62	base $-134	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,498
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 12950 Carvel Glenn Dr, Crosby, TX 77532Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $277,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family planWillow floorplan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2412

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Willow (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $277,990 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $277,990 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $277,990 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $277,990 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $277,990 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $277,990 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $277,990 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $277,990 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $277,990 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $277,990 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $277,990 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $277,990 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $277,990 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $277,990 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $277,990 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,990 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,990 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $277,990 Active 73 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $277,990 Active 72 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $277,990 Active 70 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $277,990 Active 69 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $277,990 Active 68 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $277,990 Active 67 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $277,990 Active 66 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $277,990 Active 64 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $277,990 Active 63 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $277,990 Active 62 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $277,990 Active 61 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $277,990 Active 60 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 59 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $277,990 Active 58 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $277,990 Active 57 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $277,990 Active 56 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $277,990 Active 55 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $277,990 Active 54 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $277,990 Active 51 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $277,990 Active 49 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $277,990 Active 48 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $277,990 Active 45 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $277,990 Active 44 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $277,990 Active 43 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $277,990 Active 42 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $277,990 Active 40 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $277,990 Active 36 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $277,990 Active 35 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $277,990 Active 34 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 31 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 29 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $277,990 Active 28 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,990 Active 27 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$4,230
• − Insurance: −$2,207
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − Depreciation: −$8,203
• Taxable loss: −$6,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,544
• After-tax cash flow: $-66/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Willow plan by CastleRock Communities is move-in ready with excellent condition and a fresh, modern design. Minor updates to paint, flooring, windows, and HVAC would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Replace windows with energy-efficient ones — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — A new HVAC system enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 12950 Carvel Glenn Dr, Crosby, TX 77532Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $277,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family planWillow floorplan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2412

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Willow (new construction plan)