2003 Cobblestone Trl · Forney, TX 75126

$238,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,591 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2006 7,100 sqft lot $150/sqft · 13% below area Est $276k · 13% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT PRICE - GREAT SUBDIVISION - MOVE IN READY! This wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 full bath, one-story home is located in sought after Windmill Farms subdivision with each access to Hwy 80. The open floor plan concept is great for entertaining as the living and dining areas are one great room. Kitchen features new granite countertops, sink, faucet, backsplash and stainless steel appliances. The living area with corner gas fireplace is open to kitchen and offers easy access to fully fenced in backyard with covered patio. Primary bedroom suite is separate from secondary bedrooms, has a walk-in closet and overlooks backyard. The primary bath has dual sinks updated with granite countertops and new

Key facts

• 7,100 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community amenities: club house, community pool, fishing, lake, park, playground, greenbelt, jogging/bike paths, sidewalks
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee (includes full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, management fees); HOA management: Essex Management Company

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; 2 covered parking spaces; Driveway
• Security: Burglar alarm (owned); Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Individual gas meter; Natural gas available; Cable available; Curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Property is not attached; Year built 2006
• Construction: Brick and siding exterior; Composition roof; Preowned construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Wood full backyard fence; Sprinkler system; Subdivision lot (interior lot); Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with dual sinks, garden tub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Fireplace heating option; Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Granite counters; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings; One living area; One dining area; Total of 9 rooms; Living room with fireplace (gas starter, decorative)
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Separate utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smith Int (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 602 students, 58% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,599 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,032
• List price: $238,900
• Delta: -13.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2015 Natchez Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+0%)	4mo	$254,000	$159	71
3104 Holstein Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,644 (+3%)	5mo	$249,000	$151	67
2110 Preston Trl	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,743 (+10%)	4mo	$259,900	$149	65
2115 Rose May Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,743 (+10%)	2mo	$255,000	$146	65
3100 Singleton Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-4%)	6mo	$265,000	$173	63
2009 Brook Meadow Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+8%)	4mo	$205,000	$120	61
1108 Halifax Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-6%)	5mo	$220,000	$146	60
1016 Halifax Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+6%)	0mo	$240,000	$143	57
2010 Misty Hollow Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+8%)	3mo	$205,900	$120	56
2030 Gardenia Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+7%)	6mo	$240,000	$141	56
2016 Brook Meadow Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+14%)	4mo	$161,160	$89	49
1010 Halifax Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,399 (-12%)	2mo	$220,000	$157	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-54,300
• Equity at exit: $35,621

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-75,994
• Equity at exit: $20,656

Cash invested: $66,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$523 /mo · $6,271/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,430

Max offer price $204,599

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-127	+0% $-194	+5% $-262	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-367	-5% $-280	+0% $-194	+5% $-108	+10% $-22
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-133	base $-194	+0.5pp $-256	+1.0pp $-319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,725
• Closing costs: $7,167
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2004 Chisolm Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,150	$1.26	21d	1	0.10mi
4620 Elderberry St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1856	$1,850	$1.00	23d	1	0.15mi
3007 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,200	$1.33	26d	1	0.20mi
8050 Privet St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,100	$1.03	26d	1	0.22mi
3016 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,100	$1.25	45d	1	0.25mi
9105 Switchgrass Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1962	$2,800	$1.43	12d	1	0.27mi
5015 Royal Springs Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2066	$2,125	$1.03	45d	1	0.28mi
3018 Sweetwater Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,950	$1.27	8d	1	0.29mi
3023 Villegas Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,875	$1.11	26d	1	0.29mi
3017 Villegas Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2153	$2,150	$1.00	45d	1	0.30mi
3010 Sweetwater Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,200	$1.00	45d	1	0.31mi
9200 Hawthorne Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2037	$2,440	$1.20	13d	1	0.31mi
3039 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,000	$1.18	45d	1	0.32mi
3013 McCoy Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1643	$1,895	$1.15	26d	1	0.34mi
3010 McCoy Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$2,050	$1.22	26d	1	0.35mi
3083 Chillingham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,800	$2.29	45d	1	0.38mi
4315 Elderberry St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,950	$1.37	45d	1	0.38mi
3088 Chillingham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1643	$1,850	$1.13	45d	1	0.40mi
3095 Barzona Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,850	$1.10	19d	1	0.41mi
3133 Angus Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,050	$1.22	45d	1	0.41mi
2000 Natchez Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,819	$1.17	45d	1	0.47mi
2101 Wildwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,900	$1.22	45d	1	0.47mi
2006 Brook Meadow Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1912	$2,050	$1.07	45d	1	0.47mi
2009 Brook Meadow Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,800	$1.05	45d	1	0.49mi
3111 Flint Rock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2185	$2,295	$1.05	9d	1	0.50mi
3109 Chillingham Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2181	$2,199	$1.01	5d	1	0.50mi
2015 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,850	$1.16	23d	1	0.50mi
4222 Calla Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,950	$0.98	19d	1	0.52mi
9225 Lone Cypress Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,070	$1.29	1d	1	0.53mi
3112 Shorthorn Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,150	$1.48	9d	1	0.53mi
2214 Sumac Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2055	$2,070	$1.01	45d	1	0.55mi
2026 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,315	$1.07	45d	1	0.55mi
3010 Saddleback Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,895	$1.23	45d	1	0.56mi
1108 Halifax Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,835	$1.22	19d	1	0.57mi
1108 Halifax Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,835	$1.22	9d	1	0.57mi
3005 Guadalupe Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2169	$2,195	$1.01	45d	1	0.60mi
2029 Cone Flower Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,816	$1.13	9d	1	0.61mi
2027 Fair Crest Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2108	$1,975	$0.94	45d	1	0.62mi
3122 Zapta Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,150	$1.28	45d	1	0.63mi
4254 Calla Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1983	$2,400	$1.21	45d	1	0.63mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $238,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    price $238,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $249,900 Active 1220-char remark
18. 2023-09-26
    historical $1,795
19. 2023-09-22
    listed $1,795

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,271 · $523/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,271 · $523/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,382
• − Property taxes: −$6,271
• − Insurance: −$1,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,097
• − Management: −$2,097
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$6,950
• Taxable loss: −$6,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,516
• After-tax cash flow: $-814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13209.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $238,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $244,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $249,900 NTREIS
• 2023-09-26 Rental Removed $1,795 NTREIS
• 2023-09-22 Listed for Rent $1,795 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,271 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.