Dowing Plan · Corpus Christi, TX 78415

$276,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Poor condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Watermill Collection offers new single-family homes for sale at a great value, now selling at the Kings Landing masterplan in Corpus Christi, TX. Located right off of Highway 286, homeowners enjoy convenient access to restaurants, shops and entertainment. It's only a short 15-minute drive to all the local offerings in downtown Corpus Christi and 30 minutes to water-borne adventures on Mustang Island. Students will attend the well-renown London Independent School District.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 128 days

Tags

• NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• SHORT DRIVE TO DOWNTOWN
• WELL-RENOWN SCHOOL DISTRICT

🏗️ New construction. The $276,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,343.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.6% in Corpus Christi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• London ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #13 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: London El (346 students, 20% FRL); London Middle (math 70% / reading 63%, grade A-, #89 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 393 students, 14% FRL); London H S (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 507 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 434 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,514/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 1730% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $243,759 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.10%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,343
• List price: $276,999
• Delta: 3.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2618 Westeros St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,829 (-1%)	1mo	$360,000	$197	87
2705 Eltonne Gardens Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,855 (+0%)	1mo	$280,000	$151	83
1339 Grey Worm Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	1mo	$268,999	$145	79
2753 Excelsior Blvd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,863 (+1%)	1mo	$320,000	$172	79
1309 Connie Scott Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,783 (-4%)	1mo	$331,065	$186	79
2749 Eltonne Gardens Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,894 (+2%)	1mo	$285,100	$151	75
2717 Eltonne Gardens Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,761 (-5%)	1mo	$265,100	$151	74
2606 Westeros St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-14%)	1mo	$329,990	$207	66
2766 Westeros St	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	1mo	$267,999	$161	64
1314 Lady Yoli St	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	1mo	$254,999	$153	64
1325 Connie Scott Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,612 (-13%)	1mo	$319,565	$198	63
2817 Westeros St	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,015 (+9%)	1mo	$317,999	$158	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-36,760
• Equity at exit: $40,011

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-27,963
• Equity at exit: $23,201

Cash invested: $75,136 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78415

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 434
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,514 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,407
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,025/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,347

Max offer price $268,343

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $225	+0% $132	+5% $39	+10% $-54
Rent	-10% $-67	-5% $32	+0% $132	+5% $231	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $200	base $132	+0.5pp $62	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,086
• Closing costs: $8,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2678 Lady Andrea Dr Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$3,000	$1.69	16d	1	0.21mi
2826 Westeros St Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	3.0	2016	$2,550	$1.26	16d	1	0.42mi
2741 Eltonne Gardens Dr Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	2.0	1893	$2,500	$1.32	46d	1	0.44mi
2749 Eltonne Gardens Dr Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	2.0	1894	$2,295	$1.21	16d	1	0.46mi
1341 Trent Park Ln Corpus Christi, TX	5.0	2.0	2074	$2,750	$1.33	16d	1	0.46mi
1405 Irigoyen Ct Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	2.0	2065	$2,800	$1.36	16d	1	0.47mi
1258 Breebry Dr Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,195	$1.48	16d	1	0.60mi
1269 Thames Chase Dr Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,350	$1.48	16d	1	0.60mi
1205 Carnaby St Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	2.0	1689	$2,600	$1.54	46d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $276,999 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $278,999 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $278,999 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $278,999 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,999 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $278,999 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,999 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $278,999 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $278,999 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $278,999 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $283,999 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $283,999 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $283,999 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $283,999 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $283,999 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $283,999 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $283,999 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    The Watermill Collection offers new single-family homes for sale at a great value, now selling at the Kings Landing masterplan in Corpus Christi, TX. Located right off of Highway 286, homeowners enjoy convenient access to restaurants, shops and entertainment. It's only a short 15-minute drive to all the local offerings in downtown Corpus Christi and 30 minutes to water-borne adventures on Mustang Island. Students will attend the well-renown London Independent School District.

18. 2026-05-11
    price $281,999 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    The Watermill Collection offers new single-family homes for sale at a great value, now selling at the Kings Landing masterplan in Corpus Christi, TX. Located right off of Highway 286, homeowners enjoy convenient access to restaurants, shops and entertainment. It's only a short 15-minute drive to all the local offerings in downtown Corpus Christi and 30 minutes to water-borne adventures on Mustang Island. Students will attend the well-renown London Independent School District.

19. 2026-02-13
    listed $279,999 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    The Watermill Collection offers new single-family homes for sale at a great value, now selling at the Kings Landing masterplan in Corpus Christi, TX. Located right off of Highway 286, homeowners enjoy convenient access to restaurants, shops and entertainment. It's only a short 15-minute drive to all the local offerings in downtown Corpus Christi and 30 minutes to water-borne adventures on Mustang Island. Students will attend the well-renown London Independent School District.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,031
• − Property taxes: −$4,025
• − Insurance: −$1,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,414
• − Management: −$2,414
• − Depreciation: −$7,806
• Taxable loss: −$2,861
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$687
• After-tax cash flow: $2,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding, roof, flooring, and interior cleaning and paint. Significant updates are needed to improve its condition and resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major roof — Missing shingles
• Major flooring — Worn and damaged condition
• Major interior walls/paint — Dirty and in need of cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Resale exterior siding repair — Aesthetic improvement and increased curb appeal
• Resale roof repair — Structural integrity and safety
• Resale flooring replacement — Improved living space and increased value
• Resale interior cleaning and paint — Fresh and clean appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant damage and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Missing shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and damaged condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Dirty and in need of cleaning	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale exterior siding repair — Aesthetic improvement and increased curb appeal ↑
• Resale roof repair — Structural integrity and safety ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — Improved living space and increased value ↑
• Resale interior cleaning and paint — Fresh and clean appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: London ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827990
• Math proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $123,503
• Composite: 61.03/100
• National rank: #796
• State rank: #13 of 826 in TX

Livability — Corpus Christi

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #2404

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Corpus Christi, TX
• County: Nueces County · 296,836 people
• City population: 296,836
• Metro: Corpus Christi, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,080
• Household income: $54,990
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1730.0

Population outlook (Nueces County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 418,037 people
• By 2030: 447,123 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 505,911 · +21.0%
• By 2050: 567,522 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 729,686 · +74.6%
• By 2100: 847,087 · +102.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 41% White 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 40%

Political lean MEDSL · Nueces

• 2024 margin: R (+11.5) · D 43.8% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.4pp · 2024: -11.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.5 2020: R+2.9 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.20%
• Current HPI: 158.011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.32%
• Metro: Corpus Christi, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $283,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $281,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Listed $279,999 Zillow