Horizon Plan · Forney, TX 75126

$234,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily · 374 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Thoughtfully arranged and beautifully functional, the one-story Horizon offers a welcoming layout that brings ease and comfort to everyday living. From the moment you enter through the front door, you're greeted by a sense of openness that flows naturally through the home. At the center, a spacious great room connects seamlessly to the dining area and kitchen, making this the perfect place to gather, unwind, or entertain with ease. The kitchen features ample counter space and cabinetry, with a layout that supports everything from quick breakfasts to evening meals with loved ones. A tucked-away tech space near the foyer adds a practical bonus, ideal for remote work, homework, or keeping life organized. The private primary suite is thoughtfully positioned at the rear of the home, creating a peaceful retreat with a generously sized bedroom and a well-designed bath. Two additional secondary bedrooms are conveniently located, sharing a full bath and offering flexible space for family, guests, or personal pursuits. The dedicated laundry room is centrally placed for added convenience, helping your daily routine run smoothly. Throughout the Horizon, light-filled rooms and smart design elements create an uplifting atmosphere where every square foot works hard and feels just right. Whether you're stepping into homeownership for the first time or seeking a home that's easy to care for and enjoy, the Horizon delivers an ideal blend of livability, efficiency, and style.

Key facts

• One story
• Great room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ONE STORY
• GREAT ROOM
• TUCKED AWAY TECH SPACE
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $234,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $285,734.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 3349 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 374 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 374 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,734
• List price: $234,990
• Delta: -17.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1923 Long Pond Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-0%)	2mo	$269,890	$178	87
1810 Cabin Wood Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-4%)	5mo	$217,174	$150	87
1101 Baker Bridge Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-4%)	4mo	$214,874	$148	85
1024 Barkers Pond Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-0%)	1mo	$254,890	$168	84
1795 Gleasondale Pl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+6%)	4mo	$304,890	$190	80
2725 Baker Farm Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-4%)	0mo	$251,999	$172	79
1760 Glacial Beech Pl	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-8%)	1mo	$239,990	$172	75
1759 Gleasondale Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,726 (+14%)	3mo	$259,990	$151	67
2717 Baker Farm Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+9%)	0mo	$252,999	$153	66
1531 Gentle Night Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-14%)	4mo	$229,000	$175	63
2107 Bluebell	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,630 (+7%)	2mo	$220,000	$135	60
4515 Stardust Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,295 (-15%)	2mo	$210,000	$162	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-62,104
• Equity at exit: $42,604

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-83,819
• Equity at exit: $24,705

Cash invested: $80,005 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 81 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.7 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $269,990 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 103 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 3349
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$357 /mo · $4,286/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,500

Max offer price $257,772

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-95	+0% $-193	+5% $-292	+10% $-391
Rent	-10% $-371	-5% $-282	+0% $-193	+5% $-104	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-49	-0.5pp $-121	base $-193	+0.5pp $-267	+1.0pp $-343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,433
• Closing costs: $8,572
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	127d	1	0.09mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	135d	1	0.09mi
2421 Eldor Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,195	$1.31	165d	1	0.09mi
1507 Forge Pond Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,000	$1.48	80d	1	0.10mi
1430 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,950	$1.33	153d	1	0.12mi
1368 Cider St Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2130	$2,900	$1.36	10d	1	0.17mi
1580 Forge Pond Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,800	$1.25	35d	1	0.18mi
1759 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,050	$1.19	165d	1	0.20mi
1774 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2024	$2,200	$1.09	52d	1	0.20mi
1350 Eldridge Pond St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2093	$2,500	$1.19	10d	1	0.20mi
1769 Glacial Beech Pl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1598	$1,950	$1.22	52d	1	0.20mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	184d	1	0.23mi
1130 Arborwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,200	$1.29	56d	1	0.26mi
1122 Arborwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1718	$2,200	$1.28	129d	1	0.28mi
2308 Kirkstall Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,600	$1.48	5d	1	0.28mi
1106 Arborwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2017	$2,495	$1.24	10d	1	0.31mi
1503 Gentle Night Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,650	$1.56	10d	1	0.31mi
2301 Kirkstall Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,800	$1.61	86d	1	0.32mi
2016 Croftbank St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,500	$1.30	71d	1	0.32mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,295	$1.34	143d	1	0.35mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,195	$1.28	82d	1	0.35mi
1017 Somerset Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,195	$1.00	121d	1	0.36mi
2106 Bluebell Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,895	$1.23	10d	1	0.43mi
4325 Pyramid Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,895	$1.31	73d	1	0.49mi
4503 Stardust Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	10d	1	0.50mi
2043 Fair Crest Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,100	$1.17	10d	1	0.50mi
2027 Fair Crest Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2108	$1,995	$0.95	10d	1	0.50mi
2027 Fair Crest Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2108	$1,975	$0.94	184d	1	0.50mi
2135 Bluebell Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,700	$1.18	1d	1	0.51mi
2021 Fair Crest Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,789	$1.22	10d	1	0.52mi
1506 Calcot Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$2,400	$1.26	20d	1	0.55mi
1506 Calcot Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$2,400	$1.26	10d	1	0.55mi
2214 Sumac Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2055	$2,070	$1.01	184d	1	0.59mi
2208 Sumac Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,740	$1.12	2d	1	0.61mi
2013 Natchez Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$1,975	$1.18	56d	1	0.61mi
2013 Natchez Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$1,975	$1.18	10d	1	0.61mi
2101 Wildwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,900	$1.22	184d	1	0.64mi
1459 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2034	$3,000	$1.47	129d	1	0.64mi
1439 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,250	$1.16	121d	1	0.65mi
1439 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,250	$1.16	124d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $234,990 Active 374 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $234,990 Active 373 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $234,990 Active 372 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $234,990 Active 371 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $234,990 Active 370 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $234,990 Active 368 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $234,990 Active 367 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $234,990 Active 366 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $234,990 Active 365 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $234,990 Active 364 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $234,990 Active 363 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $234,990 Active 362 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $234,990 Active 361 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $234,990 Active 360 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $234,990 Active 359 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $234,990 Active 358 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $234,990 Active 357 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $234,990 Active 356 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $234,990 Active 355 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $234,990 Active 354 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $234,990 Active 353 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $234,990 Active 352 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $234,990 Active 351 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $234,990 Active 350 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $234,990 Active 349 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $234,990 Active 348 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $234,990 Active 347 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $234,990 Active 346 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $234,990 Active 345 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $234,990 Active 344 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $234,990 Active 343 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $234,990 Active 342 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $234,990 Active 341 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $234,990 Active 340 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $234,990 Active 339 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $234,990 Active 338 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $234,990 Active 337 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $234,990 Active 336 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $234,990 Active 334 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $234,990 Active 333 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $234,990 Active 332 DOM
42. 2026-09-26
    days on market $234,990 Active 331 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $234,990 Active 330 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $234,990 Active 329 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $234,990 Active 328 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $234,990 Active 327 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $234,990 Active 326 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $234,990 Active 325 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $234,990 Active 324 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $234,990 Active 323 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,006
• − Property taxes: −$4,286
• − Insurance: −$1,429
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − Depreciation: −$8,312
• Taxable loss: −$7,303
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,753
• After-tax cash flow: $-566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,600–$22,800 screening

This Horizon plan in Forney, TX is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level. It offers a welcoming layout and is move-in ready with minor maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Trim and mulch landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crosby El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Brown Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High North Forney H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Listed $259,990 Zillow