3925 Grand Ave · Duluth, MN 55806

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,029 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1921 3,485 sqft lot $136/sqft · 22% below area Est $174k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home was just updated in 2026! Some updates include an updated kitchen and bathroom. New windows were installed as well giving plentiful natural lighting throughout the home! A parking area was created in the back so there is now off street parking. The home has an appraised market value of $220,000 but is being sold $80,000 below market value to income qualified buyers. Home must be owner-occupied and buyer’s gross annual income cannot exceed the following (household size in parenthesis): $56,350 (1); $64,400(2); $72,450 (3); $80,500 (4); $86,950 (5); $93,400 (6) $99,850 (7) $106,300 (8).

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Updated kitchen
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW WINDOWS
• OFF STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $140k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,080
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -19.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3925 Grand Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-3%)	0mo	$140,000	$140	95
3916 W 4th St	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,005 (-2%)	2mo	$250,000	$249	90
4217 W 7th St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,021 (-1%)	3mo	$245,000	$240	75
3721 W 4th St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-2%)	9mo	$214,900	$213	74
526 N 43rd Ave W	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,033 (+0%)	10mo	$245,315	$237	74
417 N 38th Ave Ave W	0.18mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,082 (+5%)	8mo	$235,000	$217	70
4316 6th St	0.38mi	3/1.0	924 (-10%)	1mo	$230,000	$249	64
3337 Vernon St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,103 (+7%)	1mo	$165,000	$150	61
4512 W 7th St	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,025 (-0%)	10mo	$240,000	$234	56
406 N 43rd Ave W	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,175 (+14%)	10mo	$240,000	$204	53
838 Charles Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,137 (+10%)	2mo	$228,000	$201	51
616 Atlantic Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	897 (-13%)	0mo	$175,000	$195	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-11,487
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,529
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55806

• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,444/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,261

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 N 53rd Ave W Duluth, MN	2.0	1.0	931	$1,250	$1.34	43d	1	1.00mi
5725 W 8th St Unit 2 Duluth, MN	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	21d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 607-char remark

   Show marketing remark (607 chars)

   This home was just updated in 2026! Some updates include an updated kitchen and bathroom. New windows were installed as well giving plentiful natural lighting throughout the home! A parking area was created in the back so there is now off street parking. The home has an appraised market value of $220,000 but is being sold $80,000 below market value to income qualified buyers. Home must be owner-occupied and buyer’s gross annual income cannot exceed the following (household size in parenthesis): $56,350 (1); $64,400(2); $72,450 (3); $80,500 (4); $86,950 (5); $93,400 (6) $99,850 (7) $106,300 (8).

2. 2026-04-20
   listed $140,000 Active 607-char remark

   Show marketing remark (607 chars)

   This home was just updated in 2026! Some updates include an updated kitchen and bathroom. New windows were installed as well giving plentiful natural lighting throughout the home! A parking area was created in the back so there is now off street parking. The home has an appraised market value of $220,000 but is being sold $80,000 below market value to income qualified buyers. Home must be owner-occupied and buyer’s gross annual income cannot exceed the following (household size in parenthesis): $56,350 (1); $64,400(2); $72,450 (3); $80,500 (4); $86,950 (5); $93,400 (6) $99,850 (7) $106,300 (8).

3. 2008-04-04
   soldstatus $73,000
4. 2008-03-26
   soldstatus $73,000 97-char remark

   Show marketing remark (97 chars)

   Cheaper than Rent! New oak kitchen, natural woodwork, front porch, off street parking for 3 cars.

5. 2008-03-26
   soldstatus $73,000

   Show marketing remark (97 chars)

   Cheaper than Rent! New oak kitchen, natural woodwork, front porch, off street parking for 3 cars.

6. 2008-02-19
   historical 97-char remark

   Show marketing remark (97 chars)

   Cheaper than Rent! New oak kitchen, natural woodwork, front porch, off street parking for 3 cars.

7. 2007-11-09
   listed $79,900

   Show marketing remark (97 chars)

   Cheaper than Rent! New oak kitchen, natural woodwork, front porch, off street parking for 3 cars.

8. 2007-11-09
   listed $79,900 97-char remark

   Show marketing remark (97 chars)

   Cheaper than Rent! New oak kitchen, natural woodwork, front porch, off street parking for 3 cars.

9. 2003-04-10
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,444 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,444 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,444
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,423
• − Management: −$1,423
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27
• After-tax cash flow: $2,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duluth Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,692
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3360
• State rank: #132 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 71,097
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 9,356
• Household income: $42,833
• Rent vs Own: 57.9% rent · 42.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 506.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.85%
• Current HPI: 195.9805
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+180.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — LSAR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $140,000 LSAR
• 2008-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2008-03-26 Sold (MLS) $73,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-26 Sold (MLS) $73,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-09 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-09 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,444 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.