133 Jackson Rd · Hopewell Junction, NY 12533

$190,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,085 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1962

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedroom 1 bath ranch style home

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1962
• Listed 36 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-908/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (7.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.9% in Hopewell Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#367 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wappingers Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #207 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Fishkill Elementary School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 362 students, 26% FRL); Wappingers Junior High School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 735 students, 36% FRL); John Jay Senior High School (math 96% / reading 98%, grade A+, #53 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 1,837 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $160k (46%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $136k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,638 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-35,271
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-35,555
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12533

• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$729 /mo · $8,747/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,284

Max offer price $176,638

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $547	-5% $-22	+0% $-76	+5% $-129	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-249	-5% $-162	+0% $-76	+5% $11	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-27	base $-76	+0.5pp $-125	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-09-05
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-04
   price $190,000
3. 2025-09-04
   status Active
4. 2025-09-04
   price $253,000
5. 2025-03-05
   price $150,000
6. 2025-02-01
   status Pending
7. 2025-01-31
   price $250,000
8. 2024-12-26
   listed $350,000 Active
9. 1991-05-31
   soldstatus $136,050

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,747 · $729/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,747 · $729/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$8,747
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$914
• After-tax cash flow: $6/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wappingers Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629880
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $83,184
• Composite: 53.38/100
• National rank: #1474
• State rank: #207 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hopewell Junction

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #6338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• City population: 27,325
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,325
• Household income: $141,585
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 190.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.32%
• Current HPI: 232.2351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+39.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $190,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $253,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-26 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $136,050 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,747 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.