44 John Dr · Burnside, KY 42519

$29,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Built 1995 Poor condition 1.00 ac lot $32/sqft · 78% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own approximately 1 wooded acre in the Jasper Bend area of Burnside, surrounded by the Cumberland River and just minutes from Lake Cumberland recreation. This property is situated in a lake-oriented community known for boating, fishing, and outdoor enjoyment, with nearby boat launch access and proximity to local marinas. The setting offers privacy, mature trees, and a peaceful environment while remaining close to Burnside amenities and General Burnside Island State Park. An existing manufactured home is located on the property and will require significant repair or removal. It will be cleaned out And all personel belongings will be removed before closing. Value is primarily in the land, location, and potential, making this an excellent option for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a future homesite near the lake. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Wooded acre
• Peaceful environment
• Boat launch access

Tags

• WOODED ACRE
• LAKE ORIENTED COMMUNITY
• BOAT LAUNCH ACCESS
• PROXIMITY TO LOCAL MARINAS
• MATURE TREES
• PEACEFUL ENVIRONMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $941 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 44.1% vs local median 2.9% in Burnside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#141 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pulaski County (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #17 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $26,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 134.93%
• DSCR: 7.00
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,900
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -78.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Jasper Circle Dr	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-13%)	3mo	$138,900	$174	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.03×
• Total profit: $67,202
• Equity at exit: $17,296

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.06×
• Total profit: $151,210
• Equity at exit: $30,145

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42519

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $941

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $962	-5% $952	+0% $941	+5% $931	+10% $921
Rent	-10% $827	-5% $884	+0% $941	+5% $999	+10% $1,056
Rate	-1.0pp $956	-0.5pp $949	base $941	+0.5pp $934	+1.0pp $926

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $29,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $29,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,900 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,900 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 105 DOM
18. 2026-03-14
    price $29,900 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own approximately 1 wooded acre in the Jasper Bend area of Burnside, surrounded by the Cumberland River and just minutes from Lake Cumberland recreation. This property is situated in a lake-oriented community known for boating, fishing, and outdoor enjoyment, with nearby boat launch access and proximity to local marinas. The setting offers privacy, mature trees, and a peaceful environment while remaining close to Burnside amenities and General Burnside Island State Park. An existing manufactured home is located on the property and will require significant repair or removal. It will be cleaned out And all personel belongings will be removed before closing. Value is primarily in the land, location, and potential, making this an excellent option for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a future homesite near the lake. Property is being sold as-is.

19. 2026-03-02
    price $39,900 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own approximately 1 wooded acre in the Jasper Bend area of Burnside, surrounded by the Cumberland River and just minutes from Lake Cumberland recreation. This property is situated in a lake-oriented community known for boating, fishing, and outdoor enjoyment, with nearby boat launch access and proximity to local marinas. The setting offers privacy, mature trees, and a peaceful environment while remaining close to Burnside amenities and General Burnside Island State Park. An existing manufactured home is located on the property and will require significant repair or removal. It will be cleaned out And all personel belongings will be removed before closing. Value is primarily in the land, location, and potential, making this an excellent option for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a future homesite near the lake. Property is being sold as-is.

20. 2026-02-28
    price $49,900 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own approximately 1 wooded acre in the Jasper Bend area of Burnside, surrounded by the Cumberland River and just minutes from Lake Cumberland recreation. This property is situated in a lake-oriented community known for boating, fishing, and outdoor enjoyment, with nearby boat launch access and proximity to local marinas. The setting offers privacy, mature trees, and a peaceful environment while remaining close to Burnside amenities and General Burnside Island State Park. An existing manufactured home is located on the property and will require significant repair or removal. It will be cleaned out And all personel belongings will be removed before closing. Value is primarily in the land, location, and potential, making this an excellent option for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a future homesite near the lake. Property is being sold as-is.

21. 2026-02-23
    price $54,900 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own approximately 1 wooded acre in the Jasper Bend area of Burnside, surrounded by the Cumberland River and just minutes from Lake Cumberland recreation. This property is situated in a lake-oriented community known for boating, fishing, and outdoor enjoyment, with nearby boat launch access and proximity to local marinas. The setting offers privacy, mature trees, and a peaceful environment while remaining close to Burnside amenities and General Burnside Island State Park. An existing manufactured home is located on the property and will require significant repair or removal. It will be cleaned out And all personel belongings will be removed before closing. Value is primarily in the land, location, and potential, making this an excellent option for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a future homesite near the lake. Property is being sold as-is.

22. 2026-02-18
    price $69,999 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own approximately 1 wooded acre in the Jasper Bend area of Burnside, surrounded by the Cumberland River and just minutes from Lake Cumberland recreation. This property is situated in a lake-oriented community known for boating, fishing, and outdoor enjoyment, with nearby boat launch access and proximity to local marinas. The setting offers privacy, mature trees, and a peaceful environment while remaining close to Burnside amenities and General Burnside Island State Park. An existing manufactured home is located on the property and will require significant repair or removal. It will be cleaned out And all personel belongings will be removed before closing. Value is primarily in the land, location, and potential, making this an excellent option for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a future homesite near the lake. Property is being sold as-is.

23. 2026-02-14
    listed $79,999 Active 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own approximately 1 wooded acre in the Jasper Bend area of Burnside, surrounded by the Cumberland River and just minutes from Lake Cumberland recreation. This property is situated in a lake-oriented community known for boating, fishing, and outdoor enjoyment, with nearby boat launch access and proximity to local marinas. The setting offers privacy, mature trees, and a peaceful environment while remaining close to Burnside amenities and General Burnside Island State Park. An existing manufactured home is located on the property and will require significant repair or removal. It will be cleaned out And all personel belongings will be removed before closing. Value is primarily in the land, location, and potential, making this an excellent option for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a future homesite near the lake. Property is being sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $11,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,761
• After-tax cash flow: $8,535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property presents a rare opportunity to own a wooded acre in the Jasper Bend area of Burnside, surrounded by the Cumberland River and just minutes from Lake Cumberland recreation. However, the existing manufactured home requires significant repair or removal, and the property is in poor condition with extensive damage and neglect. Significant repairs and improvements are needed to make the property move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and damaged.
• Extensive interior — The interior is not visible, but the exterior suggests extensive damage and neglect.
• Major flooring — The flooring is not visible, but the overall condition suggests it is in poor shape.
• Extensive systems — No systems are visible, but the overall condition suggests they are in poor shape and may require extensive repairs or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Clean and repair the home — Cleaning and repairing the home will improve its appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Replace the roof — Replacing the roof will improve the home's structural integrity and appearance, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Repair or replace the exterior siding — Repairing or replacing the exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and structural integrity, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Repair or replace the flooring — Repairing or replacing the flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Repair or replace the systems — Repairing or replacing the systems will improve the home's functionality and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The exterior siding is peeling and damaged.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior · The interior is not visible, but the exterior suggests extensive damage and neglect.	Extensive	$500–3,000
flooring · The flooring is not visible, but the overall condition suggests it is in poor shape.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No systems are visible, but the overall condition suggests they are in poor shape and may require extensive repairs or replacement.	Extensive	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$46,000–156,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Clean and repair the home — Cleaning and repairing the home will improve its appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Replace the roof — Replacing the roof will improve the home's structural integrity and appearance, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Repair or replace the exterior siding — Repairing or replacing the exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and structural integrity, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Repair or replace the flooring — Repairing or replacing the flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Repair or replace the systems — Repairing or replacing the systems will improve the home's functionality and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County
• NCES district ID: 2104950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,366
• Composite: 39.69/100
• National rank: #3906
• State rank: #17 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burnside

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,800

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,414 people
• By 2030: 65,828 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 65,972 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 65,108 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 61,647 · -5.8%
• By 2100: 53,613 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 16.9% · R 82.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -55.4pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+66.7 2012: R+60.5 2008: R+55.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Current HPI: 358.2137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-62.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $29,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $39,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $49,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $54,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $69,999 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $79,999 ImagineMLS