364 Briar Bay Cir · Alafaya, FL 32825

$5,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,351 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1998 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SHORT SALE. 3/2 home in East Orlando. Close to UCF, Waterford Lakes, all major roads & excellent schools. Beautiful home with large windows and natural sunlight! Beautiful master bath with his and her sinks and an extra large oval tub. Needs a little TLC.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: P-D

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Construction materials: see remarks
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 total room
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other flooring

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$336,399) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 422.4% vs local median 3.5% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 279 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 44.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 422.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 1486.09%
• DSCR: 67.12
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,399
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
385 Briar Bay Cir	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+1%)	1mo	$310,000	$227	96
10574 Jane Eyre Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+2%)	13mo	$327,500	$238	76
501 Pointe Allyson Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+9%)	2mo	$365,000	$249	63
10758 Wildlife Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,157 (-14%)	12mo	$340,000	$294	46
10819 Wildlife Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+11%)	22mo	$395,500	$265	44
10436 Jepson St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,512 (+12%)	20mo	$370,000	$245	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 78.95×
• Total profit: $109,132
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 169.03×
• Total profit: $235,246
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32825

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $1,734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 18%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10600 Bloomfield Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$2,310	$2.46	1d	22	0.31mi
10665 Huntridge Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$2,400	$1.60	23d	1	0.36mi
10038 Vista Laguna Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,526	$2.51	1d	16	0.45mi
9942 Dean Oaks Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$2,095	$1.84	21d	1	0.68mi
10169 Cody Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$2,249	$1.94	4d	1	0.89mi
1206 Culver Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1241	$2,550	$2.05	23d	1	0.91mi
10945 Tangora St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1353	$2,225	$1.64	23d	1	0.95mi
314 Muscogee Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1296	$2,500	$1.93	23d	1	0.99mi
861 Blackgum Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,450	$1.91	7d	1	1.01mi
647 Carey Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	23d	1	1.02mi
10041 Massey St Alafaya, FL	2.0	2.0	948	$1,595	$1.68	23d	1	1.04mi
10039 Massey St Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	948	$1,595	$1.68	1d	1	1.04mi
10315 Winding Creek Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1702	$2,375	$1.40	16d	1	1.04mi
1014 Park Manor Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	943	$1,800	$1.91	23d	1	1.07mi
469 Glastonbury Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,195	$1.69	21d	1	1.11mi
9010 Running Bull Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1032	$1,632	$1.58	4d	1	1.13mi
1312 Ravida Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,650	$1.58	3d	1	1.14mi
1222 Tino Ct Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	7d	1	1.15mi
9342 Shepton St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1714	$2,250	$1.31	23d	1	1.16mi
620 Riverwoods Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,375	$1.54	3d	1	1.23mi
1033 Old Barn Rd Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,656	$1.45	13d	1	1.32mi
11147 Acme Dr Unit 207D Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1127	$1,800	$1.60	23d	1	1.39mi
834 Oberry Hoover Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1061	$1,750	$1.65	23d	1	1.40mi
10064 Marguex Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,460	$1.82	3d	1	1.41mi
1303 Creekbottom Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1364	$1,950	$1.43	2d	1	1.44mi
1346 Stearman Ct #16 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,745	$1.32	17d	1	1.46mi
1428 Skybolt Ct #26 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,995	$1.51	23d	1	1.49mi
466 Valencia Place Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,470	$2.09	10d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 295-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $5,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,149
• − Management: −$2,149
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $22,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,289
• After-tax cash flow: $15,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alafaya

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #1076

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alafaya, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 131,972
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 63,698
• Household income: $81,651
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1458.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 32% Two or more races 23% Black 11% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.52%
• Current HPI: 315.8496
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2014-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-25 Sold (MLS) $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-25 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-22 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-15 Sold (MLS) $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-24 Listed $234,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $88,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,764 · +151.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.