12721 W Greenway Rd #237 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 144 Days on market

Built 2016 Good condition $48/sqft · 37% below area Est $87k · 37% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into Rosewood Estates, a gated community in the heart of El Mirage where comfort meets convenience. This beautifully maintained 2016 home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an inviting open layout enhanced by stylish modern flooring. The bright, airy kitchen seamlessly connects to the living area, creating the perfect space for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. With parks, shopping, and dining just minutes away, this home offers an effortless blend of simplicity, comfort, and everyday ease.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2016

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.8% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.81%
• DSCR: 4.73
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,719
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -36.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12721 W Greenway Rd #184	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,140 (0%)	2mo	$48,000	$42	99
12721 W Greenway Way #200	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,140 (0%)	3mo	$73,000	$64	92
12721 W Greenway Rd #80	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	8mo	$83,990	$69	77
12721 W Greenway Rd #175	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,140 (0%)	22mo	$80,000	$70	76
15780 N Sunny Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-2%)	2mo	$197,000	$176	75
12721 W Greenway Rd #24	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-5%)	15mo	$85,000	$78	74
12721 W Greenway Rd #6	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	13mo	$72,000	$59	73
12721 W Greenway Rd #136	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-9%)	13mo	$98,000	$94	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $54,361
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.49×
• Total profit: $115,300
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $1,076

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,114	-5% $1,095	+0% $1,076	+5% $1,057	+10% $1,038
Rent	-10% $930	-5% $1,003	+0% $1,076	+5% $1,148	+10% $1,221
Rate	-1.0pp $1,103	-0.5pp $1,090	base $1,076	+0.5pp $1,061	+1.0pp $1,047

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	25d	4	0.22mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	5d	1	0.25mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	45d	1	0.40mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	25d	1	0.44mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	0d	1	0.44mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	6d	1	0.51mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,885	$1.30	0d	1	0.66mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	25d	1	0.67mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,300	$1.79	6d	1	0.72mi
13314 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1252	$2,355	$1.88	45d	1	0.76mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	3d	17	0.82mi
13148 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,915	$1.40	0d	1	0.87mi
13220 W Calavar Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,695	$1.50	0d	1	0.93mi
12731 W Sharon Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	18d	1	0.95mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	3d	3	0.98mi
13939 N 132nd Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1297	$3,500	$2.70	45d	1	1.00mi
12430 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$5,900	$4.99	0d	1	1.05mi
14005 N Palm St Unit 4 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	45d	1	1.06mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 14 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	45d	1	1.08mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 12 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	3d	1	1.08mi
13338 W Boca Raton Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,096	$1.48	25d	1	1.09mi
13342 W Canyon Creek Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,750	$1.23	25d	1	1.10mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	23d	1	1.11mi
12814 W Pershing St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	1495	$1,945	$1.30	14d	1	1.20mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	45d	1	1.25mi
12521 W Myer Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,700	$1.21	45d	1	1.28mi
12022 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	25d	1	1.31mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,703	$2.89	0d	1	1.37mi
13831 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	25d	1	1.38mi
13843 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,795	$1.49	45d	1	1.40mi
13517 N Luna St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,505	$1.19	0d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $55,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,999 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,999 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,999 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,999 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,999 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,999 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,999 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,999 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $60,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Step into Rosewood Estates, a gated community in the heart of El Mirage where comfort meets convenience. This beautifully maintained 2016 home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an inviting open layout enhanced by stylish modern flooring. The bright, airy kitchen seamlessly connects to the living area, creating the perfect space for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. With parks, shopping, and dining just minutes away, this home offers an effortless blend of simplicity, comfort, and everyday ease.

16. 2026-04-23
    price $62,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Step into Rosewood Estates, a gated community in the heart of El Mirage where comfort meets convenience. This beautifully maintained 2016 home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an inviting open layout enhanced by stylish modern flooring. The bright, airy kitchen seamlessly connects to the living area, creating the perfect space for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. With parks, shopping, and dining just minutes away, this home offers an effortless blend of simplicity, comfort, and everyday ease.

17. 2026-03-27
    price $64,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Step into Rosewood Estates, a gated community in the heart of El Mirage where comfort meets convenience. This beautifully maintained 2016 home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an inviting open layout enhanced by stylish modern flooring. The bright, airy kitchen seamlessly connects to the living area, creating the perfect space for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. With parks, shopping, and dining just minutes away, this home offers an effortless blend of simplicity, comfort, and everyday ease.

18. 2026-02-11
    price $66,000 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Step into Rosewood Estates, a gated community in the heart of El Mirage where comfort meets convenience. This beautifully maintained 2016 home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an inviting open layout enhanced by stylish modern flooring. The bright, airy kitchen seamlessly connects to the living area, creating the perfect space for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. With parks, shopping, and dining just minutes away, this home offers an effortless blend of simplicity, comfort, and everyday ease.

19. 2026-01-28
    listed $70,000 Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Step into Rosewood Estates, a gated community in the heart of El Mirage where comfort meets convenience. This beautifully maintained 2016 home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an inviting open layout enhanced by stylish modern flooring. The bright, airy kitchen seamlessly connects to the living area, creating the perfect space for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. With parks, shopping, and dining just minutes away, this home offers an effortless blend of simplicity, comfort, and everyday ease.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $12,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,070
• After-tax cash flow: $9,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2016 manufactured home in Rosewood Estates is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It features a modern kitchen, bathrooms, and flooring, and is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Replace curtains — Fresh curtains can make the home more appealing to renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace curtains — Fresh curtains can make the home more appealing to renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $62,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $64,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $66,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $70,000 ARMLS