12721 W Greenway Rd #237 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$54,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 239 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2016 Good condition $47/sqft · 34% below area Est $82k · 34% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.4

Listing remarks MLS

Step into Rosewood Estates, a gated community in the heart of El Mirage where comfort meets convenience. This beautifully maintained 2016 home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an inviting open layout enhanced by stylish modern flooring. The bright, airy kitchen seamlessly connects to the living area, creating the perfect space for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. With parks, shopping, and dining just minutes away, this home offers an effortless blend of simplicity, comfort, and everyday ease.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2016

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $755 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 4.3% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Surprise Elementary School (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #502 of 1,109 statewide, top 45%, 771 students, 72% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.96%
• DSCR: 3.67
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $82,328
• List price: $54,000
• Delta: -34.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12721 W Greenway Rd #184	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,140 (0%)	5mo	$48,000	$42	96
12721 W Greenway Way #200	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,140 (0%)	6mo	$73,000	$64	89
12721 W Greenway Rd #80	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	11mo	$83,990	$69	74
15780 N Sunny Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-2%)	6mo	$197,000	$176	72
12721 W Greenway Rd #24	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-5%)	18mo	$85,000	$78	72
12721 W Greenway Rd #6	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	16mo	$72,000	$59	70
12721 W Greenway Rd #136	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-9%)	16mo	$98,000	$94	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $35,309
• Equity at exit: $8,052

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $77,006
• Equity at exit: $4,669

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $72,990 ($66/sqft)
• Median days on market: 63 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +9.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,429 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $755

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $793	-5% $774	+0% $755	+5% $737	+10% $718
Rent	-10% $643	-5% $699	+0% $755	+5% $812	+10% $868
Rate	-1.0pp $783	-0.5pp $769	base $755	+0.5pp $741	+1.0pp $727

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	43d	3	0.22mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	100d	1	0.25mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	90d	1	0.25mi
15606 N Verde St Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,575	$1.75	19d	1	0.36mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	139d	1	0.40mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	94d	1	0.44mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	119d	1	0.44mi
13029 W Saint Moritz Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,680	$1.28	4d	1	0.46mi
15009 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,695	$1.25	19d	1	0.48mi
13145 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,989	$1.33	82d	1	0.51mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	80d	1	0.51mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	70d	1	0.51mi
13153 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	90d	1	0.55mi
13153 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	61d	1	0.55mi
13200 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	34d	1	0.58mi
13200 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	24d	1	0.58mi
13216 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	10d	1	0.59mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,649	$1.26	56d	2	0.60mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,900	$1.31	90d	1	0.66mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	54d	1	0.67mi
13214 W Tara Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,022	$1.35	0d	1	0.67mi
13006 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,716	$1.31	75d	1	0.70mi
13233 W Ironwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,935	$1.31	6d	1	0.70mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,300	$1.79	101d	1	0.72mi
13344 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,895	$1.48	19d	1	0.74mi
13344 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,895	$1.48	38d	1	0.74mi
13344 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,750	$1.37	4d	1	0.74mi
13344 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,750	$1.37	6d	1	0.74mi
13407 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,735	$1.23	10d	1	0.76mi
13314 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1252	$2,375	$1.90	19d	1	0.76mi
13314 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1252	$2,355	$1.88	139d	1	0.76mi
13015 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,686	$1.29	40d	1	0.77mi
13223 W Desert Rock Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,800	$1.25	34d	1	0.81mi
13223 W Desert Rock Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,000	$1.39	74d	1	0.81mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1267	$1,772	$1.40	0d	11	0.82mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	43d	14	0.82mi
14401 N Alto St Unit A El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	928	$1,600	$1.72	19d	1	0.85mi
13148 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,855	$1.35	90d	1	0.87mi
16222 N 123rd Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	879	$1,700	$1.93	44d	1	0.88mi
13220 W Calavar Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,695	$1.50	94d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $54,000 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $54,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $54,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $54,000 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $54,000 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $54,000 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $54,000 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $54,000 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $54,000 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $54,000 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $54,000 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $54,000 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $54,000 Active 227 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $54,000 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $54,000 Active 220 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $54,000 Active 219 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $54,000 Active 218 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 215 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 214 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $55,000 Active 213 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $55,000 Active 212 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $55,000 Active 211 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $55,000 Active 210 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $55,000 Active 209 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $55,000 Active 208 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $55,000 Active 207 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $55,000 Active 206 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $55,000 Active 205 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $55,000 Active 204 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $55,000 Active 203 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $55,000 Active 202 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $55,000 Active 201 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $55,000 Active 200 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $55,000 Active 199 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $55,000 Active 198 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $55,000 Active 197 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $55,000 Active 196 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $55,000 Active 195 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $55,000 Active 194 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $55,000 Active 193 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 192 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $55,000 Active 190 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 189 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 188 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 187 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 184 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 182 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $55,000 Active 181 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $55,000 Active 179 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $55,000 Active 177 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,372
• − Management: −$1,372
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $8,725
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,094
• After-tax cash flow: $6,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,700–$17,100 screening

This 2016 manufactured home in Rosewood Estates is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It features a modern kitchen, bathrooms, and flooring, and is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace curtains — Fresh curtains can make the home more appealing to renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Surprise Elementary School F AZ #502/1,109 Nat'l #24,773/41,679 High Valley Vista High School F AZ #133/381 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $62,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $64,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $66,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $70,000 ARMLS