1802 Aragon Dr · Harlingen, TX 78552

$200,000

None bd · None ba · 1,960 sqft · Other public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2001 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Turnkey duplex investment opportunity in Harlingen! Each unit features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and separate electric and water meters, making management simple and efficient. Fully leased and generating income from day one, this property is conveniently located within walking distance of Harlingen High School and just minutes from the Expressway, shopping, restaurants, and major employers. A strong addition to any investment portfolio with stable occupancy, individual utility metering, and a highly desirable location.

Key facts

• Fully leased
• Stable occupancy
• Turnkey duplex

Tags

• TURNKEY DUPLEX
• FULLY LEASED
• MINUTES FROM THE EXPRESSWAY
• STABLE OCCUPANCY
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot roughly 0.2588 acres (about 11,275 sq ft)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Community features include curbs and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: 6 total parking spaces; 6 covered carport spaces; Garage faces front / other garage or carport configuration
• Utilities: Public water; City sewer; 2 separate water meters
• Home design: Single-family property (2 units in community)
• Construction: Siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,960 (source: Cameron CAD)
• Exterior features: Privacy wood fencing; Patio slab; Curb and gutters; Sidewalks; Paved road access; Outbuilding (none)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric stove/range (coil); Electric water heater
• Flooring: Tile
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area with washer/dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in Harlingen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#217 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute F, employment F.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lamar El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 426 students, 92% FRL); Moises Vela Middle (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 742 students, 67% FRL); Harlingen H S - South (math 47% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,571 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools at 78% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,252 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.66%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-50,663
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-78,929
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78552

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,365/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,788

Max offer price $161,549

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1809 S Williams Ln Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,600	$1.04	13d	1	0.22mi
2406 Topaz Dr Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.5	1555	$1,800	$1.16	43d	1	0.46mi
1119 W Garfield St Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,300	$0.93	21d	1	0.56mi
2626 Haverford Blvd Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,250	$1.41	13d	1	0.75mi
606 W Taft Ave Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,200	$0.95	21d	1	0.89mi
818 W Buchanan St Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,350	$0.96	43d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 524-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,365 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$295/yr (+$25/mo · 8.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,365
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,474
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

Livability — Harlingen

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #5347

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harlingen, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 95,667
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,332
• Household income: $69,811
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 31% White 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.61%
• Current HPI: 197.1906
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $200,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,365 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.