1402 W Ajo Way #307 · Tucson, AZ 85713

$64,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * You'll love living in this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home within a wonderful family-friendly community. Check out the awesome amenities your community has to offer such as a picnic area / pavilion / grill, a playground, a clubhouse, and more! This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $64,500

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air
• Home design: Condominium unit at 1402 W Ajo Way #307, Tucson, AZ 85713
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,152

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Active listing (Spec plan 94274)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 267 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $446 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.24%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $25,412
• Equity at exit: $9,617

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.26×
• Total profit: $58,806
• Equity at exit: $5,577

Cash invested: $18,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$338
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $968/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $564

Max offer price $64,500

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $665	-5% $643	+0% $621	+5% $598	+10% $576
Rent	-10% $514	-5% $567	+0% $621	+5% $674	+10% $727
Rate	-1.0pp $653	-0.5pp $637	base $621	+0.5pp $604	+1.0pp $587

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,125
• Closing costs: $1,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1502 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	713	$844	$1.18	4d	4	0.11mi
3655 S San Rafael Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,650	$1.37	45d	1	0.34mi
1074 W Pennsylvania St Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,395	$1.09	15d	1	0.70mi
2800 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	663	$1,500	$2.26	3d	23	0.73mi
2640 S Cottonwood Ln Unit 13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.84mi
3601 S 16th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	523	$1,025	$1.96	45d	1	0.88mi
1808 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,395	$1.11	45d	1	0.94mi
3619 S 14th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	869	$1,410	$1.62	45d	1	0.97mi
2410 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	620	$1,375	$2.22	45d	10	0.98mi
673 W 41st St #1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	25d	1	1.08mi
1975 W 36th St Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	667	$1,284	$1.92	4d	1	1.09mi
3511 S 12th Ave Unit 1101 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	752	$950	$1.26	45d	1	1.15mi
3420 S Clark Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	13d	1	1.20mi
1325 W Silverlake Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	990	$1,400	$1.41	13d	2	1.21mi
3450 S Liberty Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	45d	1	1.31mi
4213 S Lundy Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,600	$1.17	25d	1	1.33mi
3917 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,590	$1.52	4d	1	1.34mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	25d	2	1.37mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Unit 1871SANJOSE Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	4d	1	1.37mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Unit 1851SANJOSE Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	22d	1	1.37mi
3638 S 9th Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	945	$1,600	$1.69	4d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $64,500 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 411-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $64,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,613
• − Property taxes: −$968
• − Insurance: −$322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$1,876
• Taxable income: $6,827
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,639
• After-tax cash flow: $5,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and modern appliances. The home is move-in ready and has good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathroom — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the appliances in the kitchen — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding a small outdoor patio or deck — An outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — New lighting can improve the home's ambiance and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathroom — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the appliances in the kitchen — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor patio or deck — An outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — New lighting can improve the home's ambiance and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B