106 W Morton St · Lucas, IA 50151

$54,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2000 Fair condition 0.43 ac lot ↓ 22% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a quiet setting, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and privacy. Enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings on the spacious deck overlooking a beautiful wooded lot, providing a serene natural backdrop. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with plenty of space to make your own, while the tranquil surroundings create a true retreat from the everyday. Don't miss the opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with nature right in your backyard.

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Spacious deck
• Functional layout

Tags

• SPACIOUS DECK
• WOODED LOT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• TRANQUIL SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes: $784

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Irregular lot; Gravel road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central Air; Forced Air (Natural Gas)
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $747 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Chariton Community School District (town): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #241 of 289 in IA (top 83%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $878 appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Lucas County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $54,076 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.31%
• DSCR: 3.59
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $50,253
• Equity at exit: $20,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.64×
• Total profit: $117,464
• Equity at exit: $28,607

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50151

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $754/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $747

Break-even live

Break-even rent $473

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $778	-5% $763	+0% $747	+5% $731	+10% $716
Rent	-10% $635	-5% $691	+0% $747	+5% $803	+10% $859
Rate	-1.0pp $775	-0.5pp $761	base $747	+0.5pp $733	+1.0pp $718

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $54,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $54,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 493-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $54,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $754 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $808 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$54/yr (+$4/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$754
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,362
• − Management: −$1,362
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $8,598
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,063
• After-tax cash flow: $6,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its exterior and interior condition, enhancing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Severe weathering
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation
• Major flooring — Worn carpet
• Major interior walls — Worn paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding replacement — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both flooring replacement — Enhances interior aesthetics and value
• Both painting interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Severe weathering	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Worn paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding replacement — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑
• Both painting interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chariton Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1907050
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,415
• Composite: 51.35/100
• National rank: #1738
• State rank: #241 of 289 in IA

Livability — Lucas

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #17828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lucas, IA
• Population (ZIP): 695

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,106 people
• By 2030: 7,755 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 7,007 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 6,265 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 4,926 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 3,792 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.1) · D 25.2% · R 73.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.7pp · 2024: -48.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.1 2020: R+43.3 2016: R+38.1 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+6.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Current HPI: 106.4565
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-21.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $54,900 DMMLS
• 2023-06-21 Listed $70,000 DMMLS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $754 · -18.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.