3250 Jersey Dr · Midlothian, TX 76065

$549,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Land · 97 Days on market

Built 2026 9,148 sqft lot $241/sqft · 10% above area Est $499k · 10% over $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21209980 - Built by J Houston Homes - Ready Now! ~ NEW JOHN HOUSTON HOME IN REDDEN FARMS IN MIDLOTHIAN ISD. This gorgeous new Denver floorplan is a stunner with its high ceilings throughout along with tons of large, energy efficient windows that allow natural light into the home. This larger 1 story home offers 4 beds, 3 baths, and exceptional open design. The home also features a large pantry and 3rd row seasonal primary closet. The stunning kitchen features wood custom cabinets with a designer wood hood, built-in appliances, elegant countertops and a large island for all of your entertainment needs. Luxurious VP flooring throughout all the main areas and many more quality upgrades. This home is a must see! AVAILABLE APRIL 2026!

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-614 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $442k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (38.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (38.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($500k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $337,871 (38.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $498,856
• List price: $549,990
• Delta: 10.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-123,922
• Equity at exit: $82,005

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-140,152
• Equity at exit: $47,553

Cash invested: $153,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1133
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,379 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,277/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $-614

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,155

Max offer price $441,599

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-302	-5% $-458	+0% $-614	+5% $-769	+10% $-925
Rent	-10% $-880	-5% $-747	+0% $-614	+5% $-480	+10% $-347
Rate	-1.0pp $-337	-0.5pp $-474	base $-614	+0.5pp $-756	+1.0pp $-901

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,498
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	45d	1	0.45mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2400	$8,950	$3.73	45d	1	0.86mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Unit 1389216P Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2389	$15,575	$6.52	25d	1	0.86mi
4021 Alpine St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2311	$3,100	$1.34	0d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $549,990 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,990 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,990 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,990 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,990 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,990 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,990 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $549,990 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $549,990 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $549,990 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $549,990 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $549,990 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $549,990 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $549,990 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    price $549,990 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    MLS# 21209980 - Built by J Houston Homes - Ready Now! ~ NEW JOHN HOUSTON HOME IN REDDEN FARMS IN MIDLOTHIAN ISD. This gorgeous new Denver floorplan is a stunner with its high ceilings throughout along with tons of large, energy efficient windows that allow natural light into the home. This larger 1 story home offers 4 beds, 3 baths, and exceptional open design. The home also features a large pantry and 3rd row seasonal primary closet. The stunning kitchen features wood custom cabinets with a designer wood hood, built-in appliances, elegant countertops and a large island for all of your entertainment needs. Luxurious VP flooring throughout all the main areas and many more quality upgrades. This home is a must see! AVAILABLE APRIL 2026!

16. 2026-03-16
    listed $566,131 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    MLS# 21209980 - Built by J Houston Homes - Ready Now! ~ NEW JOHN HOUSTON HOME IN REDDEN FARMS IN MIDLOTHIAN ISD. This gorgeous new Denver floorplan is a stunner with its high ceilings throughout along with tons of large, energy efficient windows that allow natural light into the home. This larger 1 story home offers 4 beds, 3 baths, and exceptional open design. The home also features a large pantry and 3rd row seasonal primary closet. The stunning kitchen features wood custom cabinets with a designer wood hood, built-in appliances, elegant countertops and a large island for all of your entertainment needs. Luxurious VP flooring throughout all the main areas and many more quality upgrades. This home is a must see! AVAILABLE APRIL 2026!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,065 · $839/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,788/yr (+$732/mo · 688.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,808
• − Property taxes: −$1,277
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,244
• − Management: −$3,244
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$17,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,208
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $549,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $566,131 NTREIS

Property tax history

+19.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,277 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.