24746 Zinnia Blossom Dr · Montgomery, TX 77316

$267,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,869 sqft · Land · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 7,206 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Travis floor plan features a front porch entry that leads to the foyer. Just off of the foyer are two spacious secondary bedrooms and a bathroom with a linen closet. Towards the back of the home is the large island kitchen with corner pantry, all open to the dining area and living room - perfect for entertaining. The primary bedroom is roomy with a large shower and a huge walk-in closet. This home also features a study that's great for working from home or at-home learning. Home complete 7/31/26.

Key facts

• Huge walk-in closet
• Front porch entry
• Living room

Tags

• FRONT PORCH ENTRY
• LARGE ISLAND KITCHEN
• CORNER PANTRY
• DINING AREA
• LIVING ROOM
• HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Associa PMG); Association fee $550 annually; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by Century Communities; New construction (2026); Brick and cement siding; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Microwave; Quartz counters; Kitchen island; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in primary bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen-family room combo; Pantry; Quartz countertops; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater; Radiant attic barrier; Energy-efficient HVAC, insulation, lighting, roof, windows, and water heater
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $267,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $277,812.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,328 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,812
• List price: $267,900
• Delta: -3.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-71,136
• Equity at exit: $41,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-109,195
• Equity at exit: $24,020

Cash invested: $77,787 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,457
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$347 /mo · $4,167/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,488

Max offer price $230,349

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,453
• Closing costs: $8,334
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $267,900 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $267,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $267,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-05-15
   listed $267,900 Active 508-char remark
5. 2026-04-29
   listed $267,900 Active 506-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,562
• − Property taxes: −$4,167
• − Insurance: −$1,389
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,082
• Taxable loss: −$8,853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,125
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $267,900 HARMLS