3102 Redondo Dr · Texas City, TX 77568

$339,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,370 sqft · Land · 103 Days on market

Built 2017 10,161 sqft lot $143/sqft · 12% below area Est $384k · 12% under $133/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to Sell in Lago Mar! Modern luxury awaits in this 2017-built home with 10,161 sq ft lot. 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, chef-inspired kitchen, and spacious backyard perfect for pets or play. Primary suite with spa-like bath and walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms offer ample space and storage. Enjoy Crystal Lagoon living and resort-style amenities in highly desirable Texas City community. Convenient access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Don't miss out on this opportunity to own a stunning property in a gated section of Lago Mar. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Large island
• Gated section
• Generous backyard

Tags

• GATED SECTION
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $246,758 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.17%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,424
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -11.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-68,583
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-70,543
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,468 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,780/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,785

Max offer price $294,674

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-155	+0% $-251	+5% $-347	+10% $-443
Rent	-10% $-446	-5% $-348	+0% $-251	+5% $-153	+10% $-56
Rate	-1.0pp $-80	-0.5pp $-165	base $-251	+0.5pp $-339	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	24d	1	0.49mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	7d	1	0.49mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	13d	1	0.67mi
114 Mustang Stampede Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1752	$2,050	$1.17	3d	1	1.01mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	13d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-03-10
    listed $339,000 Active 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Priced to Sell in Lago Mar! Modern luxury awaits in this 2017-built home with 10,161 sq ft lot. 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, chef-inspired kitchen, and spacious backyard perfect for pets or play. Primary suite with spa-like bath and walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms offer ample space and storage. Enjoy Crystal Lagoon living and resort-style amenities in highly desirable Texas City community. Convenient access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Don't miss out on this opportunity to own a stunning property in a gated section of Lago Mar. Schedule your private showing today!

16. 2026-03-09
    historical
17. 2026-01-26
    listed $345,000 Active
18. 2024-11-08
    historical
19. 2024-09-03
    listed $345,000 Active
20. 2024-09-01
    historical
21. 2024-06-07
    price $359,000
22. 2024-05-08
    listed $365,900 Active
23. 2024-05-06
    historical
24. 2023-06-10
    historical
25. 2023-06-06
    listed $369,900 Active
26. 2023-05-31
    historical
27. 2023-05-01
    price $369,900
28. 2023-03-17
    price $375,000
29. 2023-01-20
    listed $380,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,780 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,204 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,424/yr (+$369/mo · 248.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$1,780
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,369
• − Management: −$2,369
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$9,049
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,172
• After-tax cash flow: $-839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $339,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-03 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Price Changed $359,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Listed $365,900 HARMLS
• 2024-05-06 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-06-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-06-06 Listed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2023-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-01 Price Changed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2023-03-17 Price Changed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listed $380,000 HARMLS