The Gabriel Plan · Bastrop, TX 78602

$250,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily · 627 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to the Gabriel a one story home in our Valverde community in Bastrop, TX. The Gabriel offers open concept living across 1,206 sq ft and features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. As you first enter the home you step into a grand multifunctional living, dining, and kitchen. The main bedroom, bedroom 1, is near the front of the home providing privacy. Enjoy the large walk-in closet and separate en-suite. The stunning kitchen features white "picture frame" cabinets, stainless steel appliances and much more. Towards the back of the home, you'll find the two secondary bedrooms and bathroom. Enjoy your covered back patio and find yard work a breeze with the rear detached garage, perfect for storage. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and a full irrigation system as well as our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Contact us today and find your home at Valverde.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 626 days

🏗️ New construction. The $250,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $264,873.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Bastrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#947 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mina El (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 785 students, 55% FRL); Bastrop Middle (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 929 students, 80% FRL); Bastrop H S (math 23% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,621 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1237 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 31d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 627 days — a 12% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $205,930 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 627 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,873
• List price: $250,990
• Delta: -5.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 El Seibo Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	2mo	$247,490	$205	94
306 Puerto Plata Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	7mo	$252,990	$210	92
202 Constanza Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,202 (-0%)	4mo	$262,990	$219	91
311 Santo Domingo Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	7mo	$254,990	$211	91
314 Puerto Plata Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	10mo	$239,990	$199	85
312 Santo Domingo Rd	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+10%)	1mo	$257,450	$193	77
318 Nizao Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+10%)	2mo	$273,230	$205	75
304 Puerto Plata Ave	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+10%)	5mo	$265,990	$200	74
305 Santa Domingo Rd	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+10%)	10mo	$272,590	$205	70
307 El Seibo Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+10%)	10mo	$268,990	$202	68
323 El Seibo Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+10%)	9mo	$268,990	$202	66
312 Puerto Plata Ave	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+10%)	11mo	$269,990	$203	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-61,894
• Equity at exit: $39,493

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-93,793
• Equity at exit: $22,901

Cash invested: $74,164 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.3 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $260,990 ($203/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78602

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1237
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,059 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,973/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,317

Max offer price $235,407

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-112	+0% $-204	+5% $-295	+10% $-387
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-285	+0% $-204	+5% $-122	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-136	base $-204	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,218
• Closing costs: $7,946
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Puerto Plata Ave Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$2,050	$1.40	60d	1	0.04mi
312 Nizao Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,800	$1.49	33d	1	0.07mi
320 Santo Domingo Rd Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,873	$1.55	13d	1	0.07mi
306 Constanza Trl Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.0	1427	$1,850	$1.30	30d	1	0.10mi
306 Constanza Trl Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.0	1427	$2,200	$1.54	93d	1	0.10mi
306 Constanza Trl Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.0	1427	$1,850	$1.30	35d	1	0.10mi
316 Constanza Trl Bastrop, TX	4.0	2.0	1427	$2,100	$1.47	67d	1	0.14mi
151 Puerto Plata Ave Bastrop, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,210	$2.00	9d	12	0.25mi
798 Sam Houston Dr Bastrop, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1246	$2,225	$1.79	9d	23	0.44mi
194 George Neggan Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.5	1387	$1,750	$1.26	30d	1	0.48mi
945 Blakey Ln Bastrop, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,277	$1.98	9d	55	0.56mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $250,990 Active 627 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $250,990 Active 625 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $250,990 Active 624 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   pricedays on market $250,990 Active 623 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $250,490 Active 622 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $250,490 Active 619 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $250,490 Active 617 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $250,490 Active 616 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $250,490 Active 614 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $250,490 Active 612 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $250,490 Active 611 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $250,490 Active 610 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $250,490 Active 609 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $250,490 Active 608 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,490 Active 606 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,490 Active 605 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $250,490 Active 604 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $250,490 Active 603 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $250,490 Active 602 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,490 Active 601 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,490 Active 600 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $250,490 Active 599 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $250,490 Active 598 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $250,490 Active 597 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $250,490 Active 595 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $250,490 Active 594 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $250,490 Active 593 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $250,490 Active 591 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $250,490 Active 590 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $250,490 Active 589 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $250,490 Active 588 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $250,490 Active 587 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $250,490 Active 586 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $250,490 Active 585 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $250,490 Active 584 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $250,490 Active 582 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $250,490 Active 580 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $250,490 Active 579 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $250,490 Active 576 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $250,490 Active 575 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $250,490 Active 574 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $250,490 Active 573 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $250,490 Active 571 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,990 Active 567 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,990 Active 566 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,990 Active 565 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 562 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 561 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 560 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 559 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,837
• − Property taxes: −$3,973
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − Depreciation: −$7,705
• Taxable loss: −$7,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,700
• After-tax cash flow: $-744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Gabriel Plan in Bastrop, TX is a well-maintained single-family home with good condition and no immediate repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mina El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Bastrop Middle F TX #971/1,662 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Bastrop H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bastrop ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,010
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #7799
• State rank: #670 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Bastrop

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #947
• US rank: #16846

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 94,260 people
• City population: 38,190
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,190
• Household income: $89,968
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.68%
• Current HPI: 247.1145
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.04%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $263,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $262,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $261,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-19 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-19 Listed $298,990 Zillow