172 Factory Rd · Mexico, NY 13069

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1958 0.78 ac lot Est $30k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location on the corner of Route 3, so easy to get to Fulton, Oswego, Phoenix, Central Square or Mexico. House has been gutted & ready for tear down or rehab.

Key facts

• Fully gutted
• Ready for rehab
• 0.78 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED BACK YARD
• FULLY GUTTED
• READY FOR REHAB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $937 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.8% vs local median 3.1% in Mexico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#756 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mexico Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #540 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 133.85%
• DSCR: 6.96
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $30,240
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
172 Factory Rd	0.00mi	3/—	840 (0%)	0mo	$30,000	$36	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.30×
• Total profit: $69,706
• Equity at exit: $20,293

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.82×
• Total profit: $158,061
• Equity at exit: $38,106

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13069

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $937

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $958	-5% $947	+0% $937	+5% $927	+10% $916
Rent	-10% $823	-5% $880	+0% $937	+5% $994	+10% $1,051
Rate	-1.0pp $952	-0.5pp $945	base $937	+0.5pp $929	+1.0pp $921

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (169 chars)

   Great location on the corner of Route 3, so easy to get to Fulton, Oswego, Phoenix, Central Square or Mexico. House has been gutted & ready for tear down or rehab.

2. 2026-04-19
   status Pending 169-char remark

   Show marketing remark (169 chars)

   Great location on the corner of Route 3, so easy to get to Fulton, Oswego, Phoenix, Central Square or Mexico. House has been gutted & ready for tear down or rehab.

3. 2026-04-02
   status Active 169-char remark

   Show marketing remark (169 chars)

   Great location on the corner of Route 3, so easy to get to Fulton, Oswego, Phoenix, Central Square or Mexico. House has been gutted & ready for tear down or rehab.

4. 2026-04-02
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (169 chars)

   Great location on the corner of Route 3, so easy to get to Fulton, Oswego, Phoenix, Central Square or Mexico. House has been gutted & ready for tear down or rehab.

5. 2025-10-12
   listed $30,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (169 chars)

   Great location on the corner of Route 3, so easy to get to Fulton, Oswego, Phoenix, Central Square or Mexico. House has been gutted & ready for tear down or rehab.

6. 2025-10-12
   listed $30,000 Active 169-char remark

   Show marketing remark (169 chars)

   Great location on the corner of Route 3, so easy to get to Fulton, Oswego, Phoenix, Central Square or Mexico. House has been gutted & ready for tear down or rehab.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,391
• − Management: −$1,391
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $11,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,747
• After-tax cash flow: $8,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexico Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,635
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5691
• State rank: #540 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mexico

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #756
• US rank: #14489

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,313
• Population (ZIP): 23,176

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Current HPI: 304.443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-19 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-10-12 Listed $30,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-12 Listed $30,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,664 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.