5 Cypress Run Unit 56B · Sugarmill Woods, FL
Flood risk 8/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.78%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 25 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +14.6/15.0
- Cash flow +6.2/30.0
- 1% rule +6.0/10.0
- Schools +5.1/10.0
- Condition / age +3.8/5.0
- Livability +3.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +0.5/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$158,750
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Motivated seller presenting a turn-key, FULLY FURNISHED 2-bedroom, 2-bath end-unit Cypress condo with a bright, open layout and enhanced privacy. Relax on the screened lanai overlooking peaceful surroundings - wonderful for enjoying quiet Florida mornings and unwinding in the evening. A heated community pool is just minutes away, adding to the resort-style lifestyle, and the building features an elevator for added convenience.
Key facts
- Screened lanai
- Elevator building
- $576 HOA
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $159k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (32.3% below list).
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
- Recommended offer: $107k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 59/100 on livability (#825 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Homosassa Elementary School (math 62% / reading 47%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 411 students, 78% FRL); Lecanto Middle School (math 49% / reading 49%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 809 students, 55% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: 808 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 33% of rent.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.10% ✓
- Cap rate
- 4.11%
- Cash-on-cash
- -7.79%
- DSCR
- 0.65
- GRM
- 7.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $188,291
- List price
- $158,750
- Delta
- -15.69%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Cypress Run Unit 26B | 0.08mi | 2/2.0 | 1,410 (0%) | 1mo | $132,000 | $94 | 96 |
| 10 Sycamore Cir | 0.27mi | 2/2.0 | 1,400 (-1%) | 1mo | $215,000 | $154 | 86 |
| 3 Cypress Run Unit 33A | 0.07mi | 2/2.0 | 1,643 (+16%) | 1mo | $163,000 | $99 | 71 |
| 2 Quail Run | 0.40mi | 2/2.0 | 1,528 (+8%) | 1mo | $215,000 | $141 | 67 |
| 16 Golfview Ct | 0.77mi | 2/2.0 | 1,436 (+2%) | 0mo | $220,000 | $153 | 62 |
| 49 Douglas St #22 | 0.71mi | 2/2.5 | 1,456 (+3%) | 0mo | $140,000 | $96 | 59 |
| 5 Dahoon Dr | 0.86mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,394 (-1%) | 1mo | $235,000 | $169 | 57 |
| 53 Douglas St #16 | 0.74mi | 2/2.5 | 1,456 (+3%) | 1mo | $107,000 | $73 | 57 |
| 23 Sweetgum Ct S | 0.91mi | 2/2.0 | 1,269 (-10%) | 1mo | $275,000 | $217 | 48 |
| 7003 W Sedan Ct | 1.46mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,248 (-12%) | 1mo | $289,000 | $232 | 40 |
| 5470 W Hunter Run Ln | 1.12mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,738 (+23%) | 1mo | $324,000 | $186 | 34 |
| 3 Rebecca Ct | 1.07mi | 3/3.0 (+1) | 1,734 (+23%) | 0mo | $295,000 | $170 | 31 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -33.0%
- Equity multiple
- -0.08×
- Total profit
- $-47,907
- Equity at exit
- $23,670
- IRR
- -37.2%
- Equity multiple
- -0.55×
- Total profit
- $-69,111
- Equity at exit
- $13,726
Cash invested: $44,450 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 2 active
- Median asking
- $219,500 ($169/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 20 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- -20.9% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 34446
- Home prices YoY
- -10.4%
- Active inventory
- 808
- Price-to-rent
- 7.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,753 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$833
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$198 /mo · $2,381/yr
- Insurance
- −$66
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$66 /mo · $798/yr
- HOA
- −$576
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$368
- Net cashflow
- $-355
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-245 | -5% $-300 | +0% $-355 | +5% $-410 | +10% $-465 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-493 | -5% $-424 | +0% $-355 | +5% $-286 | +10% $-216 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-275 | -0.5pp $-315 | base $-355 | +0.5pp $-396 | +1.0pp $-438 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $39,688
- Closing costs
- $4,762
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 15 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Black Cherry Dr Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1140 | $1,600 | $1.40 | 116d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 5 Jamaica St Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1353 | $1,500 | $1.11 | 116d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 13 Jamaica St Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1040 | $1,450 | $1.39 | 5d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 17 Jamaica St Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $1,500 | $1.36 | 116d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 57 Chinaberry Cir Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1132 | $1,575 | $1.39 | 116d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 17 Dogwood Dr Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1400 | $1,600 | $1.14 | 116d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 23 Dogwood Dr Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1492 | $2,200 | $1.47 | 116d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 117 Golfview Dr Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1507 | $2,000 | $1.33 | 116d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 51 Golfview Ct Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1553 | $1,900 | $1.22 | 116d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 6270 W Oak Park Blvd Unit 6270 Homosassa, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1500 | $1,850 | $1.23 | 110d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 6290 W Oak Park Blvd Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 925 | $1,495 | $1.62 | 54d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 6789 W Oak Park Blvd Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1200 | $1,695 | $1.41 | 77d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 5538 W Oak Park Blvd Homosassa, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1439 | $1,700 | $1.18 | 5d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 5356 W Oak Park Blvd Homosassa, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1451 | $2,600 | $1.79 | 5d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 5356 W Oak Park Blvd Homosassa, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1451 | $2,750 | $1.90 | 119d | 1 | 1.33mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Homeowners association with elevator accessAnnual association fee listed; monthly association fee listed (association fees cover cable TV, insurance, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, pest control, trash, and water)Community pool
Exterior
- Parking
- Assigned parkingDetached carport1 total parking space
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Residential condominiumUnit located on second floor (end unit on right) — directions indicate 2nd floor end unitFirst building on right in complex
- Construction
- Stucco constructionAsphalt shingle roofBlock foundationBuilt as condominium (year built not provided)
- Exterior features
- Community heated in-ground pool with electric heatLandscaped lotLevel lotWooded lotCounty road frontage
Interior
- Kitchen
- Electric cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorBreakfast barPantryEat-in kitchen
- Bedrooms
- Master bedroom on main level
- Flooring
- CarpetVinyl
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
- Interior features
- ElevatorBreakfast barBidetEat-in kitchenLaminate countersOpen floor planPantryWalk-in closet(s)Master bedroom on main levelBlinds and window coveringsFurnished
- Laundry & utility
- Washer and dryer includedIn-unit laundry and common area laundry
HOA detail $576/mo · $6,912/yr condo
- Likely covers
- pool
- Assessments
- None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $158,750 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $158,750 Active 154 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $158,750 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $158,750 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $158,750 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $158,750 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $158,750 Active 148 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $158,750 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $158,750 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $158,750 Active 145 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $158,750 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $158,750 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $158,750 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $158,750 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $158,750 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $158,750 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $158,750 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $158,750 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $158,750 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $158,750 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $158,750 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $158,750 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $158,750 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $158,750 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $158,750 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $158,750 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $158,750 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $158,750 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $158,750 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $158,750 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $158,750 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $158,750 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $158,750 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $158,750 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $158,750 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $158,750 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $158,750 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $158,750 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $158,750 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $158,750 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $158,750 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $158,750 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $158,750 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $158,750 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $158,750 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $158,750 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $158,750 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $158,750 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $158,750 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $158,750 Active 91 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $21,033
- − Mortgage interest
- −$8,892
- − Property taxes
- −$2,381
- − Insurance
- −$1,591
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,683
- − Management
- −$1,683
- − HOA
- −$6,912
- − Depreciation
- −$4,618
- Taxable loss
- −$6,728
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,615
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,644/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This fully furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath end-unit Cypress condo is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good roof, exterior, and landscaping, and is located in a well-maintained building with a heated pool. The kitchen and bathrooms need some updates, but the overall condition is good and it is move-in ready.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves durability and adds value. ↑
- Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Citrus
- NCES district ID
- 1200270
- Math proficiency
- 49% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -6.00%
- Median HH income
- $38,618
- Composite
- 41.28/100
- National rank
- #3519
- State rank
- #44 of 73 in FL
Livability — Sugarmill Woods
- Score
- 59/100
- State rank
- #825
- US rank
- #20184
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Sugarmill Woods, FL
- County
- Citrus County · 138,622 people
- City population
- 18,797
- Metro
- Homosassa Springs, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 19,102
- Household income
- $58,802
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 6% of renters
Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 138,622 people
- By 2030
- 136,886 · -1.3%
- By 2040
- 132,009 · -4.8%
- By 2050
- 125,196 · -9.7%
- By 2075
- 108,570 · -21.7%
- By 2100
- 84,454 · -39.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (87%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 95% English-only · Spanish 4%
Political lean MEDSL · Citrus
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -32.11%
- Current HPI
- 277.2576
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Homosassa Springs, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Price history
-6.1% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-20 Price Changed $158,750 RACC
- 2026-05-22 Price Changed $159,000 RACC
- 2026-04-21 Listed $169,000 RACC
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…