113 Sky King Dr · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$165,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,762 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1982 0.50 ac lot $94/sqft · 12% below area Est $188k · 12% under $113/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is on 2 lots and is great for a weekend getaway or full time living. The main level has a great room, kitchen, dining area and wood-burning stove. 2 beds, 2.5 baths, all appliances are updated and included. The deck is FULL LENGTH. Call today to see your next home!

Key facts

• Wood-burning stove
• 2 lots
• Great room

Tags

• 2 LOTS
• GREAT ROOM
• WOOD-BURNING STOVE
• FULL LENGTH DECK
• DETACHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.7% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $355 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-786 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $165k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.49%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,353
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -12.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
173 Lookout	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-12%)	8mo	$191,900	$123	46
103 Doubles Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (-12%)	2mo	$90,000	$58	43
310 Timber Rd	0.67mi	2/2.0	2,020 (+15%)	4mo	$165,000	$82	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $12,423
• Equity at exit: $44,018

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $55,618
• Equity at exit: $49,897

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,586

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $441	-5% $384	+0% $327	+5% $270	+10% $213
Rent	-10% $169	-5% $248	+0% $327	+5% $406	+10% $485
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $369	base $327	+0.5pp $284	+1.0pp $240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	45d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
18. 2026-02-28
    listed $165,000 New Listing 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    This home is on 2 lots and is great for a weekend getaway or full time living. The main level has a great room, kitchen, dining area and wood-burning stove. 2 beds, 2.5 baths, all appliances are updated and included. The deck is FULL LENGTH. Call today to see your next home!

19. 2026-02-28
    historical

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    This home is on 2 lots and is great for a weekend getaway or full time living. The main level has a great room, kitchen, dining area and wood-burning stove. 2 beds, 2.5 baths, all appliances are updated and included. The deck is FULL LENGTH. Call today to see your next home!

20. 2025-11-24
    listed $165,000 New Listing
21. 2018-09-14
    soldstatus $60,000 Sold
22. 2018-09-14
    soldstatus $60,000
23. 2018-08-24
    status Under Contract
24. 2018-06-23
    price $69,900
25. 2017-09-08
    price $73,500
26. 2017-06-29
    listed $79,500 New Listing
27. 2004-12-06
    soldstatus $58,700
28. 1995-12-08
    soldstatus $57,000
29. 1986-08-08
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$351
• After-tax cash flow: $3,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+184.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Listed $165,000 CARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $165,000 CARMLS
• 2018-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-14 Sold (MLS) $60,000 CARMLS
• 2018-08-24 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-06-23 Price Changed $69,900 CARMLS
• 2017-09-08 Price Changed $73,500 CARMLS
• 2017-06-29 Listed $79,500 CARMLS
• 2004-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $58,700 Public Records
• 1995-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1986-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $189 · -24.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.