18 S 21st St · Belleville, IL 62226

$157,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,929 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 190 Days on market

Built 1923 6,098 sqft lot Est $162k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS PROPERTY IS VERY NEAR LINDENWOOD UNIVERSITY AND IS BEING SOLD IN IT'S AS-IS, WHERE-IS CONDITION. SELLER WILL CHOOSE THE CLOSING ENTITY FOR PROPERTY. HOME HAS AN UNFINISHED BASEMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A 2ND BATHROOM AND A DETACHED GARAGE, FENCED BACKYARD.

Key facts

• Brick bungalow
• Window seat
• Convenient location

Tags

• BRICK BUNGALOW
• WINDOW SEAT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 15

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($145/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Belleville High School-West (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,234 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $158k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.33%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,036
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 S 21st St	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,929 (0%)	1mo	$157,500	$82	97
604 N 17th St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (-0%)	7mo	$146,000	$76	69
207 S 17th St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (+4%)	6mo	$10,000	$5	67
6 Marian Ct	0.33mi	4/1.5	1,998 (+4%)	10mo	$199,000	$100	64
1825 W A St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-7%)	10mo	$149,900	$84	62
209 N 14th St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (+6%)	1mo	$40,000	$20	59
120 N 28th St	0.45mi	4/1.5	2,100 (+9%)	1mo	$85,000	$40	57
1305 Raab Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,775 (-8%)	4mo	$180,000	$101	49
2311 Fairview Cir	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,201 (+14%)	8mo	$300,000	$136	47
16 S 30th St	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,737 (-10%)	4mo	$189,000	$109	44
228 N 12th St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,114 (+10%)	9mo	$37,000	$18	39
22 Kingsbury Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,159 (+12%)	10mo	$215,000	$100	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-22,215
• Equity at exit: $23,484

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,621
• Equity at exit: $13,618

Cash invested: $44,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62226

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,700/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,519

Max offer price $157,500

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,375
• Closing costs: $4,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 S 13th St Belleville, IL	3.0	1.5	1800	$1,325	$0.74	17d	1	0.50mi
1205 3rd Ave Belleville, IL	4.0	2.0	1512	$1,800	$1.19	17d	1	0.60mi
618 W Monroe St Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,050	$0.70	23d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-05
   price $157,500
3. 2025-10-20
   listed $165,000 Active
4. 2014-12-11
   soldstatus 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   THIS PROPERTY IS VERY NEAR LINDENWOOD UNIVERSITY AND IS BEING SOLD IN IT'S AS-IS, WHERE-IS CONDITION. SELLER WILL CHOOSE THE CLOSING ENTITY FOR PROPERTY. HOME HAS AN UNFINISHED BASEMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A 2ND BATHROOM AND A DETACHED GARAGE, FENCED BACKYARD.

5. 2014-10-30
   listed $44,900 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   THIS PROPERTY IS VERY NEAR LINDENWOOD UNIVERSITY AND IS BEING SOLD IN IT'S AS-IS, WHERE-IS CONDITION. SELLER WILL CHOOSE THE CLOSING ENTITY FOR PROPERTY. HOME HAS AN UNFINISHED BASEMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A 2ND BATHROOM AND A DETACHED GARAGE, FENCED BACKYARD.

6. 1999-09-14
   soldstatus $60,000
7. 1997-02-28
   soldstatus $57,000
8. 1997-02-28
   soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,700 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,700 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,822
• − Property taxes: −$3,700
• − Insurance: −$788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$4,582
• Taxable loss: −$2,427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$583
• After-tax cash flow: $728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Belleville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2604

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belleville, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 47,407
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,255
• Household income: $70,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.57%
• Current HPI: 133.9028
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+176.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $157,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Listed $165,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-11 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-30 Listed $44,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1997-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1997-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,700 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.