609 N East St · Lovington, NM 88260

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 1970 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with central heating and cooling, a metal roof.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 7,000 sq ft (about 0.16 acres); lot dimensions roughly 140 x 50 feet

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential)
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Free-standing range; Carpet and tile flooring; Central air conditioning; Forced air heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#33 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Llano Elementary (325 students, 99% FRL); Taylor Middle (527 students, 99% FRL); Lovington High (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #51 of 110 statewide, top 50%, 737 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 172 units permitted in Lea County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lea County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.77%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 W Van Buren Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,277 (-11%)	9mo	$70,000	$55	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,218
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $38,444
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88260

• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $991

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $437	+0% $403	+5% $369	+10% $335
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $344	+0% $403	+5% $462	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $463	-0.5pp $434	base $403	+0.5pp $372	+1.0pp $340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
514 West Avenue J Unit J Lovington, NM	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	45d	1	1.24mi
1811 W Jackson Ave Apt A Lovington, NM	2.0	1.0	1078	$1,300	$1.21	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    remarks 87-char remark
14. 2026-06-05
    listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $448 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$512/yr (+$43/mo · 114.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$738
• After-tax cash flow: $4,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Lovington

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #11541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lovington, NM
• Population (ZIP): 15,410

Population outlook (Lea County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,268 people
• By 2030: 91,695 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 108,366 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 126,264 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 170,606 · +102.5%
• By 2100: 199,235 · +136.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 31% Two or more races 26% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Lea

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.5% · R 80.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -44.2pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.6 2016: R+48.5 2012: R+49.7 2008: R+44.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.50%
• Current HPI: 92.2391
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $120,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $448 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.