2515 Burchard Dr · Bellefontaine Neighbors, MO 63136

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1963 7,993 sqft lot Est $136k · at est. $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in St. Louis, 2515 Burchard Drive is a charming 1-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. This property offers a comfortable and functional layout with spacious living areas and nicely sized bedrooms. The full basement provides excellent additional space for storage, a recreation area, or future finishing potential. A great opportunity for those seeking single-level living with added flexibility and room to grow.

Key facts

• Full basement
• Single-level living
• 7,993 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#592 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Keeven Elem. (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,037 of 1,115 statewide, top 94%, 267 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 53% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,876 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.01%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11030 Worchester Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,080 (0%)	13mo	$179,900	$167	84
11100 Landseer Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+3%)	6mo	$187,000	$168	77
2505 Netherton Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,064 (-2%)	12mo	$168,000	$158	75
2515 Linnell Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,082 (+0%)	1mo	$109,900	$102	73
2628 Hadden Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,052 (-3%)	8mo	$189,900	$181	68
2252 Luxmore Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	986 (-9%)	6mo	$59,000	$60	67
10539 Monarch Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,073 (-1%)	3mo	$135,000	$126	60
4895 Lockwig Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+1%)	10mo	$124,900	$114	59
2633 Hadden Dr	0.44mi	3/3.0	1,164 (+8%)	7mo	$120,000	$103	57
10618 Landseer Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+9%)	13mo	$154,800	$132	53
11129 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+13%)	6mo	$75,000	$62	46
10448 Halls Ferry Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+14%)	14mo	$104,000	$85	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $38,936
• Equity at exit: $66,747

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $116,699
• Equity at exit: $107,874

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,728/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	1d	1	0.20mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	23d	1	0.21mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	43d	1	0.39mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	43d	1	0.55mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	21d	1	0.71mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	7d	1	0.77mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	14d	1	0.77mi
10501 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,090	$0.96	43d	1	0.88mi
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	43d	3	0.89mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	21d	1	0.90mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	14d	1	0.91mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	43d	1	0.93mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,756	$1.49	1d	1	0.95mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	2d	1	0.96mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	0.97mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	23d	1	0.97mi
10441 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1380	$1,380	$1.00	43d	1	0.99mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	23d	1	1.02mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	17d	1	1.06mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	1.10mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	1.22mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	1.23mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	1.25mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	1.30mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	1.30mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	43d	1	1.30mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	1.30mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	43d	1	1.33mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	1.35mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	43d	1	1.35mi
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	7d	1	1.39mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	1.41mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	23d	1	1.49mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	43d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   status Active
3. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-04
   listed $134,900 Active
5. 2022-10-04
   soldstatus $3,087,952

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,728 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,728 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,728
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $517
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$124
• After-tax cash flow: $2,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bellefontaine Neighbors

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #20944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-95.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $134,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $3,087,952 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,728 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.