23 Argonne Rd W · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$875,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,371 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1991 0.36 ac lot $638/sqft · 12% below area Est $996k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Desirably set on a manicured . 36 acres in Hampton Bays South with room for pool, this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offers convenient one level living with a two-car garage and full basement. Highlights include hardwood floors throughout, a light-filled living room with a wood-burning fireplace, separate dining room with plenty of entertaining space, a bright white kitchen with large pantry closet, laundry room, and ample room for storage. Enjoy as is or put your own mark on this well-priced offering. Only minutes to the ocean, Main Street shops, and the Hamptons best waterfront restaurants.

Key facts

• Large pantry closet
• One level living
• 0.36 acre lot

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• LARGE PANTRY CLOSET
• AMPLE ROOM FOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $875k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $763k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $763k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,626/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($862k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $762,600 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.12%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $996,110
• List price: $875,000
• Delta: -12.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Nassau Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,526 (+11%)	14mo	$790,000	$518	63
4 Poplar St	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,332 (-3%)	22mo	$735,000	$552	59
52 Springville Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,322 (-4%)	21mo	$720,000	$545	57
9 Squiretown Rd	0.51mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,266 (-8%)	7mo	$910,000	$719	51
3 Elm St	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	16mo	$735,000	$613	47
3 Vine St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	1mo	$785,000	$523	44
129 Springville Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+11%)	15mo	$780,000	$513	42
54 Ocean Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-12%)	11mo	$705,000	$588	33
25 Lynncliff Rd	0.61mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,530 (+12%)	15mo	$825,100	$539	33
25 Seaside Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-14%)	15mo	$812,500	$691	31
33A Fanning Ave Unit A	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,178 (-14%)	23mo	$780,000	$662	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-74,061
• Equity at exit: $130,465

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $153,794
• Equity at exit: $75,654

Cash invested: $245,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax from tax record: −$638 /mo · $7,658/yr
• Insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,601
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,078

Max offer price $875,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $218,750
• Closing costs: $26,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$7,445	$4.30	2d	1	0.37mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	25d	1	0.43mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	44d	1	0.58mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	44d	1	0.65mi
37 Maryland Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1640	$20,000	$12.20	44d	1	0.68mi
5 Ardmore Ct Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$28,000	$15.56	19d	1	0.71mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	25d	1	0.73mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	44d	1	0.73mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	25d	1	0.79mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	44d	1	0.81mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	0.92mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	25d	1	0.92mi
60 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$27,000	$17.58	44d	1	0.94mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	21d	1	0.95mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	19d	1	0.99mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	5d	1	1.15mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	44d	1	1.23mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	44d	1	1.25mi
18 Shinnecock Rd Unit 3 Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	1760	$22,000	$12.50	24d	1	1.27mi
36 Nautilus Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	1726	$36,000	$20.86	44d	1	1.34mi
38 Woodridge Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1398	$8,000	$5.72	25d	1	1.34mi
15 Gardners Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1665	$30,000	$18.02	19d	1	1.34mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	25d	1	1.40mi
20A Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1073	$10,000	$9.32	15d	1	1.42mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	1d	1	1.42mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	44d	1	1.46mi
43B Old Squires Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$8,000	$6.67	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-30
   listed $875,000 Active 608-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,658 · $638/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,223 · $935/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,565/yr (+$297/mo · 46.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $91,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,014
• − Property taxes: −$7,658
• − Insurance: −$4,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,321
• − Management: −$7,321
• − Depreciation: −$25,455
• Taxable loss: −$9,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,311
• After-tax cash flow: $7,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $7,658 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.