33817 Secret Hill Dr · Silver Lake, FL 34788

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2003 9,919 sqft lot Est $296k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO HOA and room to park your boat! Take a look at this fantastic 3-bedroom/2-bath home with 1,610 sq. ft. of living space in this centrally located Leesburg neighborhood. This home has great curb appeal an extended driveway, perfect for parking your boat or RV and a newer roof only 2 years old. Inside you will find an open floorplan featuring a great room with cathedral ceilings and beautiful ceramic tile wood look flooring. Living space is at the back of the home and it opens to a large breakfast nook and features French doors to the extended backyard patio. The kitchen is stunning and has been beautifully updated to include upgraded cabinetry with crown molding and soft-close drawers, beautiful stacked stone tile backsplash, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a custom pantry. A laundry room is located off of the kitchen for convenience. The bedrooms are split, and the spacious master suite is located near the kitchen and features an adjoining master bath with a HUGE walk-in closet, dual vanities, and a walk-in shower with custom tile. Two more bedrooms are located on the opposite side of the home close to the stunning guest bathroom with a modern vanity and custom tiled shower with a rain shower head. When you are ready to entertain your guests, you will have plenty of space on the 31x10 open patio where you can host a BBQ in the privacy of your fully fenced backyard. There is also a storage shed where you can store all of your lawn equipment. This home has been well maintained by the seller and is located close to schools, Lake Sumter Community College, and the Lake Square Mall. Call us today to schedule your private tour!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Extended driveway
• Soft-close drawers

Tags

• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD PATIO
• FULLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• SOFT-CLOSE DRAWERS
• STACKED STONE BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($571/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.1% in Silver Lake — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#644 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Treadway Elementary School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 879 students, 66% FRL); Tavares Middle School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 1,070 students, 58% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,400/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,998 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33827 Silver Pine Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-4%)	14mo	$295,000	$191	79
33911 Secret Hill Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-14%)	2mo	$255,000	$183	71
10238 Summit Square Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-0%)	14mo	$290,000	$180	69
33624 Dolores Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,769 (+10%)	12mo	$330,000	$187	63
10118 Rockdale Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-7%)	1mo	$295,000	$197	60
10409 Pleasant View Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,821 (+13%)	9mo	$399,000	$219	58
10648 Westmont Rd	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,452 (-10%)	5mo	$195,000	$134	56
1804 Tweed Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-10%)	2mo	$233,000	$160	54
1501 New Abbey Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-6%)	7mo	$205,000	$136	51
1003 Dundee Circle Cir	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (-9%)	6mo	$242,000	$165	50
11032 Moore St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-12%)	14mo	$260,000	$184	44
10308 Pebblestone Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-10%)	13mo	$285,000	$196	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-48,178
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-38,723
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34788

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $783/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,340

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $137	+0% $48	+5% $-42	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-47	+0% $48	+5% $142	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $128	base $48	+0.5pp $-34	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10402 Pleasant View Dr Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1931	$2,599	$1.35	6d	1	0.30mi
10240 Barrington Ct Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	2090	$2,700	$1.29	14d	1	0.52mi
35 Aberdeen Cir Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,400	$1.31	25d	1	0.87mi
32635 Vista Ave Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,950	$1.68	25d	1	1.25mi
32629 Vista Ave Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	16d	1	1.26mi
32629 Vista Ave Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	19d	1	1.26mi
34000 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,100	$1.36	25d	1	1.32mi
33932 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2106	$2,400	$1.14	25d	1	1.41mi
33670 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,950	$1.27	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   listed $315,000 Active
3. 2021-11-05
   soldstatus $275,000
4. 2021-10-21
   soldstatus $275,000 Closed 1670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1670 chars)

   NO HOA and room to park your boat! Take a look at this fantastic 3-bedroom/2-bath home with 1,610 sq. ft. of living space in this centrally located Leesburg neighborhood. This home has great curb appeal an extended driveway, perfect for parking your boat or RV and a newer roof only 2 years old. Inside you will find an open floorplan featuring a great room with cathedral ceilings and beautiful ceramic tile wood look flooring. Living space is at the back of the home and it opens to a large breakfast nook and features French doors to the extended backyard patio. The kitchen is stunning and has been beautifully updated to include upgraded cabinetry with crown molding and soft-close drawers, beautiful stacked stone tile backsplash, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a custom pantry. A laundry room is located off of the kitchen for convenience. The bedrooms are split, and the spacious master suite is located near the kitchen and features an adjoining master bath with a HUGE walk-in closet, dual vanities, and a walk-in shower with custom tile. Two more bedrooms are located on the opposite side of the home close to the stunning guest bathroom with a modern vanity and custom tiled shower with a rain shower head. When you are ready to entertain your guests, you will have plenty of space on the 31x10 open patio where you can host a BBQ in the privacy of your fully fenced backyard. There is also a storage shed where you can store all of your lawn equipment. This home has been well maintained by the seller and is located close to schools, Lake Sumter Community College, and the Lake Square Mall. Call us today to schedule your private tour!

5. 2021-09-08
   status Pending 1670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1670 chars)

   NO HOA and room to park your boat! Take a look at this fantastic 3-bedroom/2-bath home with 1,610 sq. ft. of living space in this centrally located Leesburg neighborhood. This home has great curb appeal an extended driveway, perfect for parking your boat or RV and a newer roof only 2 years old. Inside you will find an open floorplan featuring a great room with cathedral ceilings and beautiful ceramic tile wood look flooring. Living space is at the back of the home and it opens to a large breakfast nook and features French doors to the extended backyard patio. The kitchen is stunning and has been beautifully updated to include upgraded cabinetry with crown molding and soft-close drawers, beautiful stacked stone tile backsplash, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a custom pantry. A laundry room is located off of the kitchen for convenience. The bedrooms are split, and the spacious master suite is located near the kitchen and features an adjoining master bath with a HUGE walk-in closet, dual vanities, and a walk-in shower with custom tile. Two more bedrooms are located on the opposite side of the home close to the stunning guest bathroom with a modern vanity and custom tiled shower with a rain shower head. When you are ready to entertain your guests, you will have plenty of space on the 31x10 open patio where you can host a BBQ in the privacy of your fully fenced backyard. There is also a storage shed where you can store all of your lawn equipment. This home has been well maintained by the seller and is located close to schools, Lake Sumter Community College, and the Lake Square Mall. Call us today to schedule your private tour!

6. 2021-08-26
   listed $275,000 Active 1670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1670 chars)

   NO HOA and room to park your boat! Take a look at this fantastic 3-bedroom/2-bath home with 1,610 sq. ft. of living space in this centrally located Leesburg neighborhood. This home has great curb appeal an extended driveway, perfect for parking your boat or RV and a newer roof only 2 years old. Inside you will find an open floorplan featuring a great room with cathedral ceilings and beautiful ceramic tile wood look flooring. Living space is at the back of the home and it opens to a large breakfast nook and features French doors to the extended backyard patio. The kitchen is stunning and has been beautifully updated to include upgraded cabinetry with crown molding and soft-close drawers, beautiful stacked stone tile backsplash, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a custom pantry. A laundry room is located off of the kitchen for convenience. The bedrooms are split, and the spacious master suite is located near the kitchen and features an adjoining master bath with a HUGE walk-in closet, dual vanities, and a walk-in shower with custom tile. Two more bedrooms are located on the opposite side of the home close to the stunning guest bathroom with a modern vanity and custom tiled shower with a rain shower head. When you are ready to entertain your guests, you will have plenty of space on the 31x10 open patio where you can host a BBQ in the privacy of your fully fenced backyard. There is also a storage shed where you can store all of your lawn equipment. This home has been well maintained by the seller and is located close to schools, Lake Sumter Community College, and the Lake Square Mall. Call us today to schedule your private tour!

7. 2016-02-10
   historical
8. 2015-12-07
   status Active
9. 2015-10-01
   historical
10. 2015-09-10
    price $179,900
11. 2015-09-10
    price $166,500
12. 2015-06-28
    listed $169,900 Active
13. 2003-01-15
    soldstatus $116,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $783 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,832/yr (+$153/mo · 233.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$783
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$4,975
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,194
• After-tax cash flow: $1,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Lake

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #644
• US rank: #12722

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,137
• Household income: $54,147
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 406.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.07%
• Current HPI: 273.6616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+171.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-21 Sold (MLS) $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-26 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-10 Price Changed $166,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-10 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-28 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $783 · -81.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.