5014 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln · Pleak, TX 77461

$206,391

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition $183/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kitson Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association pool available
• HOA & community: Association (ACMI) with amenities including clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, park, pool, and tennis courts; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 15); Bedrooms on the first floor (11 x 2; 12 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Separate shower; Tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $206,391 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $235,615.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-879/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $206k).
• Recommended offer: $203k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Pleak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,221 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,295 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,615
• List price: $206,391
• Delta: -12.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5030 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	1mo	$236,790	$163	97
5011 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	1mo	$216,090	$142	89
5026 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	1mo	$192,991	$147	82
5006 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	1mo	$209,090	$161	80
5014 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	1mo	$200,090	$154	79
6810 Papillon Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+8%)	1mo	$239,990	$153	74
7511 Barcelona Spgs	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-3%)	1mo	$206,991	$147	74
7510 Barcelona Spgs	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-3%)	1mo	$203,990	$145	70
6802 Papillon Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+13%)	0mo	$254,990	$156	67
4838 Summersweet Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	1mo	$226,791	$142	64
6806 Papillon Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+14%)	1mo	$254,990	$154	59
7507 Barcelona Spgs	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+10%)	0mo	$234,990	$147	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-42,701
• Equity at exit: $35,131

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-42,602
• Equity at exit: $20,372

Cash invested: $65,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$295 /mo · $3,534/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,293

Max offer price $225,011

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $8	+0% $-73	+5% $-155	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-247	-5% $-160	+0% $-73	+5% $14	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $-13	base $-73	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,904
• Closing costs: $7,068
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4707 Pine Meadow Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,200	$1.38	3d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $206,391 600-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   price $218,341 600-char remark
3. 2026-05-08
   price $218,340 600-char remark
4. 2026-04-30
   price $222,290 600-char remark
5. 2026-04-27
   price $226,140 600-char remark
6. 2026-04-24
   listed $236,140 Active 600-char remark
7. 2026-03-30
   listed $239,990 Active
8. 2026-03-30
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,534
• − Insurance: −$1,178
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$6,854
• Taxable loss: −$4,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Key updates include painting, refinishing floors, and enhancing the landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear
• Minor Kitchen countertops — Light wear and tear
• Minor Bathroom tiles — Some discoloration
• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration
• Minor Hardwood floors — Worn appearance
• Minor Paint on interior walls — Faded appearance
• Minor Windows — Need cleaning and sealing
• Minor HVAC unit — May need cleaning and maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both Refinish hardwood floors — Refinished floors can enhance the home's appeal and value.
• Both Clean and seal windows — Clean windows can improve the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both Clean and maintain HVAC unit — A clean and maintained HVAC unit can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhanced landscaping can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Light wear and tear	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen countertops · Light wear and tear	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom tiles · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Hardwood floors · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint on interior walls · Faded appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Windows · Need cleaning and sealing	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC unit · May need cleaning and maintenance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$4,000–24,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Refinish hardwood floors — Refinished floors can enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Clean and seal windows — Clean windows can improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain HVAC unit — A clean and maintained HVAC unit can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhanced landscaping can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pleak

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1221
• US rank: #21321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,397

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $206,391 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $218,341 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $218,340 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $222,290 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $226,140 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $236,140 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $239,990 HARMLS