4149 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit C511 · South Bradenton, FL 34205

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Condo · 203 Days on market

Built 1975 $646/mo HOA · 44% of rent ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Penthouse location with wide views of the lake! The only building in the complex that is NOT age-restricted. This is a super-nice, tastefully updated, remodeled 2BR/2BA with some great (very current) ideas implemented. For example, the owners installed a sliding 'barn door' between the kitchen & dining area with a slender built-in pantry behind that door - wonderful space saver. Kitchen has been updated: counters, appliances, cabinets: it sparkles. Buildings freshly painted! Association recently converted their cable provider to Frontier (FiOS) package so the low monthly HOA ( $221) now includes cable PLUS internet! Amazing. All buyers must be approved, no pets (sorry). Interested? Do not wait. .. !

Key facts

• Gutted to the studs
• Lake views
• $646 HOA

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• NON-AGE-RESTRICTED BUILDING
• GUTTED TO THE STUDS
• KAYAK CANOE LAUNCH AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual fees $7,752; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $646 (includes cable TV, internet, structure and grounds maintenance, pest control); Association approval required; Association: Resource Management; Community clubhouse, pool, and sidewalks; Pets allowed (max 50 lbs)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high‑speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Unit on 5th floor; East-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Other roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of Building C
• Exterior features: Storage; Asphalt road access; Lake view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Living room / dining room combo; Walk-in closet(s); Building has elevator
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($767/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); Southeast High School (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,716 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-10,344
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-18,682
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$646
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,386

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	23d	1	0.02mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	21d	1	0.02mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	14d	1	0.02mi
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	3d	1	0.20mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	23d	1	0.40mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,525	$1.62	2d	1	0.47mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,725	$1.97	23d	5	0.49mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	1d	14	0.52mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,837	$1.83	2d	10	0.60mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	23d	1	0.61mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	23d	1	0.64mi
2201 24th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,950	$1.75	23d	1	0.71mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	3d	1	0.79mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	11d	1	0.81mi
2205 20th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,850	$2.28	11d	1	0.84mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	23d	1	0.84mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	20d	1	0.84mi
2315 17th Street Ln W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	23d	1	0.84mi
2403 21st Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	23d	1	0.88mi
4812 27th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,599	$1.75	11d	1	0.91mi
4812 27th St W Unit 4812 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,545	$1.69	11d	1	0.91mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	23d	1	0.94mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	16d	1	0.95mi
2002 20th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	16d	1	0.97mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	23d	1	0.97mi
2409 13th St W Apt 2 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$1,175	$1.53	23d	1	0.97mi
2422 11th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,445	$1.61	23d	1	1.00mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	3d	16	1.00mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	16d	1	1.01mi
2127 13th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,149	$1.64	23d	1	1.06mi
1912 19th Ave W Unit 1912 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	23d	1	1.06mi
4325 40th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,675	$2.16	10d	9	1.06mi
505 30th Ave W Unit E406 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,450	$1.45	23d	1	1.10mi
2244 9th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	768	$1,323	$1.72	23d	4	1.13mi
515 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,375	$1.37	16d	2	1.13mi
2117 11th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	23d	1	1.13mi
5059 Live Oak Cir Unit 5059 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,900	$2.12	16d	1	1.14mi
390 301 Blvd W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,495	$1.33	23d	1	1.14mi
2017 12th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	23d	1	1.14mi
1505 18th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	886	$1,875	$2.12	16d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $646 · $7,752/yr
• Likely covers: internetcable
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $65,000 Active 203 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $65,000 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $65,000 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $65,000 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-03-08
   status Active
6. 2026-03-08
   price $65,000
7. 2026-03-06
   historical
8. 2025-12-16
   price $75,000
9. 2025-11-10
   listed $85,000 Active
10. 2018-06-14
    soldstatus $84,000 Sold 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Penthouse location with wide views of the lake! The only building in the complex that is NOT age-restricted. This is a super-nice, tastefully updated, remodeled 2BR/2BA with some great (very current) ideas implemented. For example, the owners installed a sliding 'barn door' between the kitchen & dining area with a slender built-in pantry behind that door - wonderful space saver. Kitchen has been updated: counters, appliances, cabinets: it sparkles. Buildings freshly painted! Association recently converted their cable provider to Frontier (FiOS) package so the low monthly HOA ( $221) now includes cable PLUS internet! Amazing. All buyers must be approved, no pets (sorry). Interested? Do not wait. .. !

11. 2018-05-25
    status Pending 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Penthouse location with wide views of the lake! The only building in the complex that is NOT age-restricted. This is a super-nice, tastefully updated, remodeled 2BR/2BA with some great (very current) ideas implemented. For example, the owners installed a sliding 'barn door' between the kitchen & dining area with a slender built-in pantry behind that door - wonderful space saver. Kitchen has been updated: counters, appliances, cabinets: it sparkles. Buildings freshly painted! Association recently converted their cable provider to Frontier (FiOS) package so the low monthly HOA ( $221) now includes cable PLUS internet! Amazing. All buyers must be approved, no pets (sorry). Interested? Do not wait. .. !

12. 2018-04-02
    status Active 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Penthouse location with wide views of the lake! The only building in the complex that is NOT age-restricted. This is a super-nice, tastefully updated, remodeled 2BR/2BA with some great (very current) ideas implemented. For example, the owners installed a sliding 'barn door' between the kitchen & dining area with a slender built-in pantry behind that door - wonderful space saver. Kitchen has been updated: counters, appliances, cabinets: it sparkles. Buildings freshly painted! Association recently converted their cable provider to Frontier (FiOS) package so the low monthly HOA ( $221) now includes cable PLUS internet! Amazing. All buyers must be approved, no pets (sorry). Interested? Do not wait. .. !

13. 2018-03-24
    status Pending 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Penthouse location with wide views of the lake! The only building in the complex that is NOT age-restricted. This is a super-nice, tastefully updated, remodeled 2BR/2BA with some great (very current) ideas implemented. For example, the owners installed a sliding 'barn door' between the kitchen & dining area with a slender built-in pantry behind that door - wonderful space saver. Kitchen has been updated: counters, appliances, cabinets: it sparkles. Buildings freshly painted! Association recently converted their cable provider to Frontier (FiOS) package so the low monthly HOA ( $221) now includes cable PLUS internet! Amazing. All buyers must be approved, no pets (sorry). Interested? Do not wait. .. !

14. 2018-03-22
    status Pending 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Penthouse location with wide views of the lake! The only building in the complex that is NOT age-restricted. This is a super-nice, tastefully updated, remodeled 2BR/2BA with some great (very current) ideas implemented. For example, the owners installed a sliding 'barn door' between the kitchen & dining area with a slender built-in pantry behind that door - wonderful space saver. Kitchen has been updated: counters, appliances, cabinets: it sparkles. Buildings freshly painted! Association recently converted their cable provider to Frontier (FiOS) package so the low monthly HOA ( $221) now includes cable PLUS internet! Amazing. All buyers must be approved, no pets (sorry). Interested? Do not wait. .. !

15. 2018-03-16
    status Pending 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Penthouse location with wide views of the lake! The only building in the complex that is NOT age-restricted. This is a super-nice, tastefully updated, remodeled 2BR/2BA with some great (very current) ideas implemented. For example, the owners installed a sliding 'barn door' between the kitchen & dining area with a slender built-in pantry behind that door - wonderful space saver. Kitchen has been updated: counters, appliances, cabinets: it sparkles. Buildings freshly painted! Association recently converted their cable provider to Frontier (FiOS) package so the low monthly HOA ( $221) now includes cable PLUS internet! Amazing. All buyers must be approved, no pets (sorry). Interested? Do not wait. .. !

16. 2018-02-26
    listed $89,900 Active 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    Penthouse location with wide views of the lake! The only building in the complex that is NOT age-restricted. This is a super-nice, tastefully updated, remodeled 2BR/2BA with some great (very current) ideas implemented. For example, the owners installed a sliding 'barn door' between the kitchen & dining area with a slender built-in pantry behind that door - wonderful space saver. Kitchen has been updated: counters, appliances, cabinets: it sparkles. Buildings freshly painted! Association recently converted their cable provider to Frontier (FiOS) package so the low monthly HOA ( $221) now includes cable PLUS internet! Amazing. All buyers must be approved, no pets (sorry). Interested? Do not wait. .. !

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − HOA: −$7,752
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$49
• After-tax cash flow: $717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-27.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-14 Sold (MLS) $84,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-26 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid