16221 Summerset Estates Blvd, · Grangerland, TX 77302

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2007 7,405 sqft lot Est $265k · 21% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 1 Story 3 bedroom 2 baths featuring a breakfast room large master and master bath with nice size backyard with a 2 car attached garage.

Key facts

• Mini-split system
• Covered back patio
• Finished flex room

Tags

• RECENTLY INSTALLED HVAC SYSTEM
• ROOF REPLACED
• CONCRETE SIDE WALKWAY
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• FINISHED FLEX ROOM
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Summerset Estates POA; Annual association fee ($500 per year); Community basketball court

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2007; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the second and third floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Entry/foyer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,828
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14989 Rustic Moon Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,506 (-1%)	2mo	$259,710	$172	87
15023 Rustic Moon Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-2%)	1mo	$287,340	$192	84
15039 Rustic Moon Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-2%)	1mo	$259,790	$174	83
16280 Sun View Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+2%)	2mo	$200,000	$129	81
16702 Sterling Cliff St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+3%)	3mo	$281,690	$179	76
15965 Blass Valley Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-1%)	2mo	$273,480	$181	74
14526 Rustic Birch Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+1%)	2mo	$235,000	$153	73
14960 Scarlet Branch Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+10%)	1mo	$295,000	$176	70
16686 Sterling Cliff St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-8%)	2mo	$242,090	$172	69
14985 Rustic Moon Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (+11%)	1mo	$264,050	$156	67
15373 Dapple Bluff Ln	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,642 (+8%)	3mo	$289,495	$176	63
16153 Sepia Manor St	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+8%)	3mo	$264,810	$161	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-21,719
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-971
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,596/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,937

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $301	-5% $241	+0% $182	+5% $122	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $10	-5% $96	+0% $182	+5% $267	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $235	base $182	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	25d	1	0.22mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	45d	1	0.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $210,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,596 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$247/yr (+$21/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,596
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$1,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$282
• After-tax cash flow: $2,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+61.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-08 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-12 Listed $254,000 HARMLS
• 2015-03-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-01-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-01-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-01-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-12-10 Listed $130,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,596 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.